Key Laboratory of Water Cycle and Related Land Surface Processes, Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China.
Int J Environ Res Public Health. 2020 Feb 17;17(4):1278. doi: 10.3390/ijerph17041278.
Heat stress would be intensified under global warming and become a key issue of occupational health for labor force working outdoors. The changes in labor force would affect regional socioeconomic development. So far, changes in labor force due to heat stress are not well documented in China. In this study, heat stress based on wet-bulb globe temperature (WBGT), which combines the thermal effects on the human body of both temperature and humidity, is projected for the near future (2021-2050) and the end of the century (2071-2099). Changes in labor capacity are then estimated for heavy and light work based on the relationships between labor capacity and the WBGT. Low and high emission scenarios, namely Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 2.6 and RCP8.5, are considered for the future projections in the hottest two months (July and August) in China. Results suggest that the WBGT would increase by more than 3-5 °C by the end of the century. The labor capacity would decrease by more than 40% for both heavy and light work in considerable areas such as South and East China, where there is a large population and developed economy. This indicates that labor force would reduce significantly due to intensified heat stress. This study calls for special attention to the impact of heat stress on occupational health and the labor force in China in the future.
在全球变暖的背景下，热应激将会加剧，成为户外工作人群职业健康的一个关键问题。劳动力的变化将影响区域社会经济的发展。到目前为止，中国还没有很好地记录因热应激导致的劳动力变化。在本研究中，基于湿球黑球温度（WBGT）的热应激被预测，WBGT 综合考虑了温度和湿度对人体的热效应。预测的时间段包括近期（2021-2050 年）和本世纪末（2071-2099 年）。然后，根据劳动能力与 WBGT 之间的关系，估算了重体力劳动和轻体力劳动的劳动能力变化。为了进行未来预测，考虑了两种未来排放情景，即代表性浓度路径（RCP）2.6 和 RCP8.5。在未来中国最热的两个月（7 月和 8 月），预测结果表明，到本世纪末，WBGT 将增加 3-5°C 以上。在南方和东部等人口众多、经济发达的地区，重体力劳动和轻体力劳动的劳动能力将下降 40%以上。这表明，由于热应激加剧，劳动力将大幅减少。本研究呼吁特别关注未来中国热应激对职业健康和劳动力的影响。
