State Key Laboratory for Diagnosis and Treatment of Infectious Diseases, National Clinical Research Center for Infectious Diseases, Collaborative Innovation Center for Diagnosis and Treatment of Infectious Diseases, The First Affiliated Hospital, College of Medicine, Zhejiang University, No. 79 Qingchun Road, Hangzhou310003, Zhejiang, China.
Zhejiang Provincial People's Hospital, No. 158 Shangtang Road, Hangzhou310014, Zhejiang, China.
Epidemiol Infect. 2020 Feb 24;148:e37. doi: 10.1017/S0950268820000333.
This study aims to ascertain the long-term epidemic trends of malaria and evaluates the probability of achieving the eradication goal by 2020 in China. Data on malaria incidence and deaths were extracted from the China Information System for Disease Control and Prevention. The epidemic trends by sex, age and spatial distribution and predictions of malaria were estimated by using Joinpoint and Poisson regressions. From 1950 to 2016, 227 668 374 malaria cases were reported in China, with an annualised average incidence of 337.02 (336.98-337.07, 95% confidence interval (CI)) per 100 000 population. The incidence decreased with an average annual per cent change (AAPC) of -11.4% (-16.6 to -6.0). There were 36 085 malaria deaths, with an annualised average mortality of 0.534 (0.529-0.540) per 1 000 000 population. The mortality decreased with an AAPC of -8.7% (-13.7 to -3.4). The predicted number of malaria cases and deaths for 2020 is 2 562 and 10, respectively, and zero for indigenous cases. The disease burden of malaria dramatically decreased in China. Though, the goal of malaria elimination is realistic by 2020 in China, routine clinical and entomological surveillance should be continually conducted, especially for the cross-border areas and imported malaria cases.
本研究旨在确定疟疾的长期流行趋势，并评估中国在 2020 年实现消除目标的可能性。疟疾发病率和死亡率数据来自中国疾病预防控制信息系统。采用 Joinpoint 和 Poisson 回归估计了按性别、年龄和空间分布的流行趋势和疟疾预测。1950 年至 2016 年，中国报告了 227668374 例疟疾病例，年发病率平均为 337.02（336.98-337.07，95%置信区间（CI））/100000 人。发病率呈每年 11.4%（-16.6 至-6.0）的平均下降趋势。有 36085 例疟疾死亡，年死亡率平均为 0.534（0.529-0.540）/1000000 人。死亡率呈每年 8.7%（-13.7 至-3.4）的平均下降趋势。预计 2020 年疟疾病例和死亡人数分别为 2562 例和 10 例，且无本土病例。中国的疟疾负担显著下降。虽然到 2020 年中国消除疟疾的目标是现实的，但应继续进行常规临床和昆虫学监测，特别是在边境地区和输入性疟疾病例。
