Zhang Meng-Jiao, Su Fang-Cheng, Xu Qi-Xiang, Zhang Rui-Qin, Wei Yu, Xie Liu-Zhen
College of Chemistry, Zhengzhou University, Zhengzhou 450001, China.
Research Institute of Environmental Science, Zhengzhou University, Zhengzhou 450001, China.
Huan Jing Ke Xue. 2021 Feb 8;42(2):513-522. doi: 10.13227/j.hjkx.202007012.
To evaluate the health benefits brought about by air environmental treatment and determine the main drivers of health risk, we calculated the health and economic benefits attributed to PM control in Eastern and Central China from 2013 to 2017 by combining PM concentrations with a human activity enhanced exposure-response model. The relative contributions of changes in four factors related to the PM health burden were also quantified, namely total population, population aging, baseline mortality rates, and ambient exposure. The results show that the population weighted PM concentration decreased by 28.73% and the proportion of the population exposed to annual PM concentrations lower than or equal to 35 μg·m increased from 11.23% to 27.91% across the study area during this period. Avoided deaths were decreased to 14.43%, which equates to avoided economic losses of approximately 559 billion RMB. If PM concentration meets the Chinese Ambient Air Quality Standard Grade Ⅱ (35 μg·m) or Grade Ⅰ (15 μg·m), or the World Health Organization Air Quality Guidelines (AQG) standards (10 μg·m), a 8.22%, 55.05%, and 79.36% reduction in the total deaths could be achieved in the base year (2017) with equivalent total economic benefits of approximately 319, 2137, and 3081 billion RMB, respectively. Total population, population aging, baseline mortality rates, and PM concentrations contributed -2.69%, -12.38%, 1.66%, and 14.57% to PM-related deaths. Overall, during the study period, the reduction in PM concentrations has been the main factor contributing to the reduction in the public health burden. China has implemented significant air pollution control measures; however, the health burden associated with high PM concentrations in densely populated areas is still extremely high, requiring an aggressive air pollution control strategy.
为评估空气环境治理带来的健康效益，并确定健康风险的主要驱动因素，我们通过将细颗粒物（PM）浓度与人类活动增强暴露-反应模型相结合，计算了2013年至2017年华东和华中地区PM控制带来的健康和经济效益。还对与PM健康负担相关的四个因素变化的相对贡献进行了量化，即总人口、人口老龄化、基线死亡率和环境暴露。结果表明，在此期间，研究区域内人口加权PM浓度下降了28.73%，年PM浓度低于或等于35μg·m³的人口比例从11.23%增至27.91%。避免死亡人数降至14.43%，相当于避免了约5590亿元人民币的经济损失。若PM浓度符合中国环境空气质量二级标准（35μg·m³）或一级标准（15μg·m³），或世界卫生组织空气质量准则（AQG）标准（10μg·m³），在基准年（2017年）可分别实现总死亡人数减少8.22%、55.05%和79.36%，相应的总经济效益分别约为3190亿元、21370亿元和30810亿元。总人口、人口老龄化、基线死亡率和PM浓度对与PM相关死亡的贡献率分别为-2.69%、-12.38%、1.66%和14.57%。总体而言，在研究期间，PM浓度的降低是减轻公众健康负担的主要因素。中国已实施了重大的空气污染控制措施；然而，人口密集地区与高PM浓度相关的健康负担仍然极高，需要积极的空气污染控制策略。
