Ali Hamisu Sadi, Nathaniel Solomon Prince, Uzuner Gizem, Bekun Festus Victor, Sarkodie Samuel Asumadu
Department of Economics, Ahmadu Bello University, Zaria, Nigeria.
Department of Economics, University of Lagos, Akoka, Nigeria.
Heliyon. 2020 Feb 21;6(2):e03400. doi: 10.1016/j.heliyon.2020.e03400. eCollection 2020 Feb.
In this era of intensive electricity utilization for economic development, the role of urbanization remains inconclusive, especially in developing economies. Here, this study examined the electricity consumption and economic growth nexus in a trivariate framework by incorporating urbanization as an additional variable. Using the recent novel Maki cointegration test, Ng-Perron, Zivot-Andrews, and Kwiatkowski unit root tests along with FMOLS, DOLS and the CCR estimation methods, we relied on an annual frequency data from 1971-2014. Results from FMOLS, DOLS and the CCR regression confirms the electricity consumption-driven economic growth. This is desirable as Nigeria is heavily dependent on energy (electricity) consumption. A unidirectional causality from urbanization to electricity consumption and economic growth was found but the long-run empirical findings revealed urbanization impedes growth - a situation that has policy implications. The study highlights that though urbanization is a good predictor of Nigeria's economic growth, however, the adjustment of the energy portfolio to meet the growing urban demand will curtail the adverse and far-reaching impact of urbanization on the economy.
在这个为经济发展而大力用电的时代，城市化的作用仍不明确，尤其是在发展中经济体。在此，本研究通过将城市化作为一个额外变量纳入，在一个三变量框架中考察了电力消费与经济增长的关系。使用最新的新颖的Maki协整检验、Ng-Perron、Zivot-Andrews和Kwiatkowski单位根检验以及FMOLS、DOLS和CCR估计方法，我们依赖于1971年至2014年的年度频率数据。FMOLS、DOLS和CCR回归的结果证实了电力消费驱动经济增长。鉴于尼日利亚严重依赖能源（电力）消费，这是可取的。发现了从城市化到电力消费和经济增长的单向因果关系，但长期实证结果表明城市化阻碍增长——这种情况具有政策含义。该研究强调，尽管城市化是尼日利亚经济增长的良好预测指标，然而，调整能源组合以满足不断增长的城市需求将减少城市化对经济的不利和深远影响。
