Van Pham Hau, Phan Uyen Thi Ngoc, Pham Anh Nguyen Quynh
Hong Bang International University, Ho Chi Minh City, Viet Nam.
Pasteur Institute in Ho Chi Minh City, Ho Chi Minh City, Viet Nam.
Western Pac Surveill Response J. 2019 Dec 13;10(4):18-23. doi: 10.5365/wpsar.2017.8.1.003. eCollection 2019 Oct-Dec.
Hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) is a public health problem in Viet Nam, and studies have reported seasonal fluctuation in the occurrence of HFMD. This study sought to describe the occurrence of HFMD and its associated meteorological factors in Dak Lak province, Viet Nam.
Monthly data on HFMD cases were collected from all commune health stations in Dak Lak province from 2012 through 2013. An HFMD case was defined as a brief febrile illness accompanied by a typical skin rash with or without mouth ulcers. Average temperature, maximum temperature, minimum temperature, humidity, rainfall, evaporation, sunshine duration and wind speed were recorded monthly at five local meteorological stations throughout Dak Lak.Data were aggregated at the district level, and the association between these meteorological factors and HFMD cases were examined by Poisson regression.
In 2012 through 2013, there were 7128 HFMD patients in Dak Lak. The number of HFMD cases increased during the rainy season. An increased risk of HFMD was associated with higher average temperature (risk ratio and 95% confidence interval: 1.06; 1.03-1.08 per 1 °C increase), higher rainfall (1.19; 1.14-1.24 per 200 mm increase) and longer sunshine duration (1.14; 1.07-1.22 per 60 hours increase). The risk of HFMD was inversely associated with wind speed (0.77; 0.73-0.81 per 1 m/s increase).
This study suggests that there is a significant association between HFMD occurrence and climate. Temperature, rainfall, wind speed and sunshine duration could be used as meteorological predictors of HFMD occurrence in Viet Nam's Central Highlands region. Intensified surveillance for HFMD during the rainy season is recommended.
手足口病（HFMD）是越南的一个公共卫生问题，且研究报告了手足口病发病的季节性波动。本研究旨在描述越南多乐省手足口病的发病情况及其相关气象因素。
收集了2012年至2013年多乐省所有公社卫生站的手足口病病例月度数据。手足口病病例定义为伴有典型皮疹（有或无口腔溃疡）的短暂发热性疾病。多乐省五个当地气象站每月记录平均温度、最高温度、最低温度、湿度、降雨量、蒸发量、日照时长和风速。数据在地区层面进行汇总，并通过泊松回归分析这些气象因素与手足口病病例之间的关联。
2012年至2013年，多乐省有7128例手足口病患者。手足口病病例数在雨季增加。手足口病风险增加与平均温度升高（风险比及95%置信区间：每升高1℃为1.06；1.03 - 1.08）、降雨量增加（每增加200毫米为1.19；1.14 - 1.24）和日照时长延长（每增加60小时为1.14；1.07 - 1.22）有关。手足口病风险与风速呈负相关（每增加1米/秒为0.77；0.73 - 0.81）。
本研究表明手足口病发病与气候之间存在显著关联。温度、降雨量、风速和日照时长可作为越南中部高地地区手足口病发病的气象预测指标。建议在雨季加强对手足口病的监测。
