Guangdong Provincial Institute of Public Health, Guangzhou, China.
PLoS One. 2013 Jul 23;8(7):e65585. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0065585. Print 2013.
Hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) was an emerging viral infectious disease in recent years in Shenzhen. The underlying risk factors have not yet been systematically examined. This study analyzed the short-term effect of El Niño-Southern Oscillation on pediatric HFMD in Shenzhen, China. Daily count of HFMD among children aged below 15 years old, Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), and weather variables were collected to construct the time series. A distributed lag non-linear model was applied to investigate the effect of daily SOI on pediatric HFMD occurrence during 2008-2010. We observed an acute effect of SOI variation on HFMD occurrence. The extremely high SOI (SOI = 45, with 0 as reference) was associated with increased HFMD, with the relative risk (RR) being 1.66 (95% Confidence Interval [CI]: 1.34-2.04). Further analyses of the association between HFMD and daily mean temperature and relative humidity supported the correlation between pediatric HFMD and SOI. Meteorological factors might be important predictors of pediatric HFMD occurrence in Shenzhen.
手足口病（HFMD）是近年来深圳市新出现的病毒性传染病。其根本风险因素尚未得到系统研究。本研究分析了厄尔尼诺-南方涛动（ENSO）对中国深圳儿科手足口病的短期影响。收集了 15 岁以下儿童的每日手足口病病例数、南方涛动指数（SOI）和气象变量，以构建时间序列。应用分布式滞后非线性模型，研究 2008-2010 年每日 SOI 对儿科手足口病发生的影响。我们观察到 SOI 变化对手足口病发生有急性影响。极高的 SOI（SOI=45，以 0 为参照）与手足口病增加相关，相对风险（RR）为 1.66（95%置信区间[CI]：1.34-2.04）。对手足口病与每日平均温度和相对湿度之间的关联进行的进一步分析支持了儿科手足口病与 SOI 之间的相关性。气象因素可能是深圳儿科手足口病发生的重要预测因子。
