Department of Cancer Control and Population Health, Graduate School of Cancer Science and Policy, National Cancer Center, Goyang, Korea.
Epidemiol Health. 2020;42:e2020011. doi: 10.4178/epih.e2020011. Epub 2020 Mar 12.
Since the first novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) patient in Korea was diagnosed on January 20, 2020, 30 patients were diagnosed until February 17, 2020. However, 5,298 additional patients were confirmed until March 4, 2020. Therefore, our objective was to estimate the reproduction number (R) and evaluate the effectiveness of preventive measures.
A COVID-19 transmission model (SEIHR) was established to suit the Korean outbreak. The number of daily confirmed cases in Daegu and North Gyeongsang Province (NGP), the main area of outbreak, was used. The first patient' symptom onset date in the Daegu/NGP outbreak was assumed as January 22, 2020. The R according to the start date of the effect of preventive measures was estimated.
The estimated R in Hubei Province, China, was 4.0281, whereas the estimated initial R in Korea was 0.555, but later in Daegu/NGP, the value was between 3.472 and 3.543. When the transmission period decreases from 4-day to 2-day, the outbreak ends early, but the peak of the epidemic increases, and the total number of patients does not change greatly. It was found that, if transmission rate decreases, the outbreak ends early, and the size of the peak and the total number of patients also decreases.
To end the COVID-19 epidemic, efforts to reduce the spread of the virus, such as social distancing and wearing masks, are absolutely crucial with the participation of the public, along with the policy of reducing the transmission period by finding and isolating patients as quickly as possible through the efforts of the quarantine authorities.
自 2020 年 1 月 20 日韩国首例 2019 年新型冠状病毒病（COVID-19）患者确诊以来，截至 2 月 17 日已确诊 30 例，但截至 2020 年 3 月 4 日又确诊 5298 例。因此，我们的目的是估计繁殖数（R）并评估预防措施的有效性。
建立了一个适合韩国疫情的 COVID-19 传播模型（SEIHR）。使用了大邱和庆尚北道（NGP），即主要爆发地区的每日确诊病例数。大邱/NGP 疫情中首例患者的发病日期假定为 2020 年 1 月 22 日。根据预防措施开始日期估计 R。
中国湖北省的估计 R 为 4.0281，而韩国的初始估计 R 为 0.555，但后来在大邱/NGP，该值在 3.472 至 3.543 之间。当传播期从 4 天缩短到 2 天时，疫情会提前结束，但疫情高峰期会增加，患者总数变化不大。结果发现，如果传播率降低，疫情会提前结束，疫情高峰期和总患者人数也会减少。
为了结束 COVID-19 疫情，公众必须绝对参与，通过检疫当局努力尽快发现和隔离患者，减少病毒传播，例如社交距离和戴口罩，这是绝对必要的，同时还必须采取减少传播期的政策。
