文献检索文档翻译深度研究
Suppr Zotero 插件Zotero 插件
邀请有礼套餐&价格历史记录

新学期,新优惠

限时优惠:9月1日-9月22日

30天高级会员仅需29元

1天体验卡首发特惠仅需5.99元

了解详情
不再提醒
插件&应用
Suppr Zotero 插件Zotero 插件浏览器插件Mac 客户端Windows 客户端微信小程序
高级版
套餐订阅购买积分包
AI 工具
文献检索文档翻译深度研究
关于我们
关于 Suppr公司介绍联系我们用户协议隐私条款
关注我们

Suppr 超能文献

核心技术专利:CN118964589B侵权必究
粤ICP备2023148730 号-1Suppr @ 2025

估算韩国 COVID-19 的繁殖数和疫情规模。

Estimating the reproductive number and the outbreak size of COVID-19 in Korea.

机构信息

Department of Cancer Control and Population Health, Graduate School of Cancer Science and Policy, National Cancer Center, Goyang, Korea.

出版信息

Epidemiol Health. 2020;42:e2020011. doi: 10.4178/epih.e2020011. Epub 2020 Mar 12.


DOI:10.4178/epih.e2020011
PMID:32164053
原文链接:https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC7285447/
Abstract

OBJECTIVES: Since the first novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) patient in Korea was diagnosed on January 20, 2020, 30 patients were diagnosed until February 17, 2020. However, 5,298 additional patients were confirmed until March 4, 2020. Therefore, our objective was to estimate the reproduction number (R) and evaluate the effectiveness of preventive measures. METHODS: A COVID-19 transmission model (SEIHR) was established to suit the Korean outbreak. The number of daily confirmed cases in Daegu and North Gyeongsang Province (NGP), the main area of outbreak, was used. The first patient' symptom onset date in the Daegu/NGP outbreak was assumed as January 22, 2020. The R according to the start date of the effect of preventive measures was estimated. RESULTS: The estimated R in Hubei Province, China, was 4.0281, whereas the estimated initial R in Korea was 0.555, but later in Daegu/NGP, the value was between 3.472 and 3.543. When the transmission period decreases from 4-day to 2-day, the outbreak ends early, but the peak of the epidemic increases, and the total number of patients does not change greatly. It was found that, if transmission rate decreases, the outbreak ends early, and the size of the peak and the total number of patients also decreases. CONCLUSIONS: To end the COVID-19 epidemic, efforts to reduce the spread of the virus, such as social distancing and wearing masks, are absolutely crucial with the participation of the public, along with the policy of reducing the transmission period by finding and isolating patients as quickly as possible through the efforts of the quarantine authorities.

摘要

目的:自 2020 年 1 月 20 日韩国首例 2019 年新型冠状病毒病(COVID-19)患者确诊以来,截至 2 月 17 日已确诊 30 例,但截至 2020 年 3 月 4 日又确诊 5298 例。因此,我们的目的是估计繁殖数(R)并评估预防措施的有效性。

方法:建立了一个适合韩国疫情的 COVID-19 传播模型(SEIHR)。使用了大邱和庆尚北道(NGP),即主要爆发地区的每日确诊病例数。大邱/NGP 疫情中首例患者的发病日期假定为 2020 年 1 月 22 日。根据预防措施开始日期估计 R。

结果:中国湖北省的估计 R 为 4.0281,而韩国的初始估计 R 为 0.555,但后来在大邱/NGP,该值在 3.472 至 3.543 之间。当传播期从 4 天缩短到 2 天时,疫情会提前结束,但疫情高峰期会增加,患者总数变化不大。结果发现,如果传播率降低,疫情会提前结束,疫情高峰期和总患者人数也会减少。

结论:为了结束 COVID-19 疫情,公众必须绝对参与,通过检疫当局努力尽快发现和隔离患者,减少病毒传播,例如社交距离和戴口罩,这是绝对必要的,同时还必须采取减少传播期的政策。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/3548/7285447/84fd6077c34f/epih-42-e2020011f5.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/3548/7285447/a78ca11274a0/epih-42-e2020011f1.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/3548/7285447/b70e4e84a73a/epih-42-e2020011f2.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/3548/7285447/6b5d918f7e63/epih-42-e2020011f3.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/3548/7285447/bada6331c205/epih-42-e2020011f4.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/3548/7285447/84fd6077c34f/epih-42-e2020011f5.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/3548/7285447/a78ca11274a0/epih-42-e2020011f1.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/3548/7285447/b70e4e84a73a/epih-42-e2020011f2.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/3548/7285447/6b5d918f7e63/epih-42-e2020011f3.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/3548/7285447/bada6331c205/epih-42-e2020011f4.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/3548/7285447/84fd6077c34f/epih-42-e2020011f5.jpg

相似文献

[1]
Estimating the reproductive number and the outbreak size of COVID-19 in Korea.

Epidemiol Health. 2020-3-12

[2]
Risk estimation of the SARS-CoV-2 acute respiratory disease outbreak outside China.

Theor Biol Med Model. 2020-6-5

[3]
Risk estimation and prediction of the transmission of coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19) in the mainland of China excluding Hubei province.

Infect Dis Poverty. 2020-8-24

[4]
Evaluation of COVID-19 epidemic outbreak caused by temporal contact-increase in South Korea.

Int J Infect Dis. 2020-5-14

[5]
Response to COVID-19 in South Korea and implications for lifting stringent interventions.

BMC Med. 2020-10-9

[6]
The principle of distance during COVID-19 outbreak in Korea.

Int Microbiol. 2020-7-27

[7]
Analyzing the effects of social distancing on the COVID-19 pandemic in Korea using mathematical modeling.

Epidemiol Health. 2020-9-7

[8]
COVID-19 in South Korea: epidemiological and spatiotemporal patterns of the spread and the role of aggressive diagnostic tests in the early phase.

Int J Epidemiol. 2020-8-1

[9]
Prediction of COVID-19 transmission dynamics using a mathematical model considering behavior changes in Korea.

Epidemiol Health. 2020-4-13

[10]
Analysis and prediction of the COVID-19 outbreak in Pakistan.

J Biol Dyn. 2020-12

引用本文的文献

[1]
Estimation of Survival Probability of Patients with COVID-19 Based on Information of Patients.

Tanaffos. 2024-3

[2]
How Did the Dietary Behavior of Older Korean Adults Change During the COVID-19 Pandemic?

Nutrients. 2025-6-11

[3]
DDE: Deep Dynamic Epidemiological Modeling for Infectious Illness Development Forecasting in Multi-level Geographic Entities.

J Healthc Inform Res. 2024-5-28

[4]
Self-care, Household Cleaning and Disinfection During COVID-19 Pandemic: A Study from Metropolitan Cities of India.

Ann Data Sci. 2022

[5]
Mathematical modeling of contact tracing and stability analysis to inform its impact on disease outbreaks; an application to COVID-19.

Infect Dis Model. 2024-2-2

[6]
Solving the stochastic dynamics of population growth.

Ecol Evol. 2023-7-30

[7]
The COVID-19 pandemic in various restriction policy scenarios based on the dynamic social contact rate.

Heliyon. 2023-3

[8]
Food Insecurity Is Associated with Dietary Consumption during the COVID-19 Pandemic: Data from the Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey 2019-2020.

Nutrients. 2023-2-2

[9]
Mathematical Modeling of COVID-19 Transmission and Intervention in South Korea: A Review of Literature.

Yonsei Med J. 2023-1

[10]
Consecutive Rate Model for Covid Infections and Deaths and Prediction of Level-Off Time.

ACS Omega. 2022-12-14

本文引用的文献

[1]
Estimation of the reproductive number of novel coronavirus (COVID-19) and the probable outbreak size on the Diamond Princess cruise ship: A data-driven analysis.

Int J Infect Dis. 2020-2-22

[2]
Estimation of the Transmission Risk of the 2019-nCoV and Its Implication for Public Health Interventions.

J Clin Med. 2020-2-7

[3]
Epidemiologic characteristics of early cases with 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) disease in Korea.

Epidemiol Health. 2020-2-9

[4]
Nowcasting and forecasting the potential domestic and international spread of the 2019-nCoV outbreak originating in Wuhan, China: a modelling study.

Lancet. 2020-1-31

[5]
Early Transmission Dynamics in Wuhan, China, of Novel Coronavirus-Infected Pneumonia.

N Engl J Med. 2020-1-29

文献AI研究员

20分钟写一篇综述,助力文献阅读效率提升50倍

立即体验

用中文搜PubMed

大模型驱动的PubMed中文搜索引擎

马上搜索

推荐工具

医学文档翻译智能文献检索