Zeinali Farahnaz, Rajabzadeh Ghatari Ali, Mohammadzadeh Mehdi, Mojibian Fatemeh
Department of Phamaeconomics, School of Medicine, Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran.
Department of Industrial Management, School of Management and Economics, Tarbiat Modares University,Tehran, Iran.
Iran J Pharm Res. 2019 Fall;18(4):2216-2225. doi: 10.22037/ijpr.2019.1100886.
Unsteady increase in using pharmaceutical opioids is a phenomenon that has existed in human societies for a long time. Furthermore, the ever-growing trend of addiction to opioids affects communities in various economic, social, and cultural aspects. Since abusing pharmaceutical opioids is a complex dynamic problem, it is extremely difficult to recognize the factors influencing this abuse. Thus, applying such dynamic models as system dynamics (SD) plays an important role in addressing these complex dynamic problems. System dynamics model falls in two categories of qualitative and quantitative system dynamics. In this paper, causal loop diagrams (CLDs), which are conceptual qualitative stages were applied, and variables were elicited from literatures; then, the initial CLDs were generated, and afterward, some experts were interviewed in order for the CLDs model to be evaluated. Ultimately, a meeting was held for discussing the variables and validating the diagrams. In this study, variables are connected by causal relationships called reinforcing and balancing. Then, the CLD model clearly depicted how the variables interact with one another indifferent stages of the process. The CLDs model is a fundamental issue in developing quantitative system dynamic, assisting policymakers in forecasting the process of non-medical use of pharmaceutical opioids and finding some measures to reduce their usage.
药用阿片类药物使用量的不稳定增长是人类社会长期存在的一种现象。此外，阿片类药物成瘾趋势的不断增长在经济、社会和文化等各个方面影响着社区。由于滥用药用阿片类药物是一个复杂的动态问题，识别影响这种滥用行为的因素极其困难。因此，应用系统动力学（SD）等动态模型在解决这些复杂的动态问题中发挥着重要作用。系统动力学模型分为定性和定量系统动力学两类。在本文中，应用了作为概念性定性阶段的因果回路图（CLD），并从文献中提取变量；然后，生成初始的CLD，之后，采访了一些专家以评估CLD模型。最后，召开了一次会议来讨论变量并验证这些图表。在本研究中，变量通过称为增强和平衡的因果关系相连。然后，CLD模型清晰地描绘了变量在过程的不同阶段是如何相互作用的。CLD模型是开发定量系统动力学的一个基本问题，有助于政策制定者预测药用阿片类药物的非医疗使用过程并找到减少其使用的一些措施。
