Su Wei, Liu Ti, Geng Xingyi, Yang Guoliang
School of Management Science and Engineering, Shandong University of Finance and Economics, Jinan, Shandong Province, China.
Shandong Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Shandong Provincial Key Laboratory of Infectious Disease Control and Prevention, Shandong University Institution for Prevention Medicine, Jinan, Shandong Province, China.
PeerJ. 2020 Mar 9;8:e8626. doi: 10.7717/peerj.8626. eCollection 2020.
Influenza is a disease under surveillance worldwide with different seasonal patterns in temperate and tropical regions. Previous studies have conducted modeling of influenza seasonality using climate variables. This study aimed to identify potential meteorological factors that are associated with influenza seasonality in Jinan, China.
Data from three influenza sentinel hospitals and respective climate factors (average temperature, relatively humidity (RH), absolute humidity (AH), sunshine duration, accumulated rainfall and speed of wind), from 2013 to 2016, were collected. Statistical and wavelet analyses were used to explore the epidemiological characteristics of influenza virus and its potential association with climate factors.
The dynamic of influenza was characterized by annual cycle, with remarkable winter epidemic peaks from December to February. Spearman's correlation and wavelet coherence analysis illuminated that temperature, AH and atmospheric pressure were main influencing factors. Multiple wavelet coherence analysis showed that temperature and atmospheric pressure might be the main influencing factors of influenza virus A(H3N2) and influenza virus B, whereas temperature and AH might best shape the seasonality of influenza virus A(H1N1)pdm09. During the epidemic season, the prevalence of influenza virus lagged behind the change of temperature by 1-8 weeks and atmospheric pressure by 0.5-3 weeks for different influenza viruses.
Climate factors were significantly associated with influenza seasonality in Jinan during the influenza epidemic season and the optional time for influenza vaccination is before November. These finding should be considered in influenza planning of control and prevention.
流感是一种在全球范围内受到监测的疾病，在温带和热带地区有不同的季节性模式。以往的研究利用气候变量对流感季节性进行了建模。本研究旨在确定与中国济南流感季节性相关的潜在气象因素。
收集了2013年至2016年来自三家流感哨点医院的数据以及相应的气候因素（平均温度、相对湿度（RH）、绝对湿度（AH）、日照时长、累计降雨量和风速）。采用统计分析和小波分析来探讨流感病毒的流行病学特征及其与气候因素的潜在关联。
流感的动态变化具有年度周期特征，12月至2月有明显的冬季流行高峰。Spearman相关性分析和小波相干分析表明，温度、绝对湿度和大气压力是主要影响因素。多重小波相干分析表明，温度和大气压力可能是甲型（H3N2）流感病毒和乙型流感病毒的主要影响因素，而温度和绝对湿度可能最能影响甲型（H1N1）pdm09流感病毒的季节性。在流行季节，不同流感病毒的流感病毒流行率滞后于温度变化1 - 8周，滞后于大气压力变化0.5 - 3周。
在流感流行季节，气候因素与济南的流感季节性显著相关，流感疫苗接种的最佳时间是11月之前。在流感防控规划中应考虑这些发现。
