Department of Public Administration, Faculty of Political Science and Diplomacy, Vytautas Magnus University, Kaunas, Lithuania.
Health Research Institute, Faculty of Public Health, Lithuanian University of Health Sciences, Kaunas, Lithuania.
Drug Alcohol Rev. 2020 Nov;39(7):818-826. doi: 10.1111/dar.13059. Epub 2020 Mar 20.
Over the recent decades, Lithuania has reported very high alcohol-related harm and mortality indicators when compared to other countries. This, among other reasons, led to an adoption of comprehensive evidence-based alcohol control policy measures back in 2007 and 2016. The aim of this study is to examine alcohol-related male mortality in the context of changing alcohol control policies over the period 2000-2017.
The life table decomposition method was applied to estimate to what extent the age groups and causes of death are responsible for changes in male life expectancy in the period 2000-2017. Furthermore, a time series intervention model was used to study the impact of alcohol control measures on alcohol-related mortality. A seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average model was fitted.
Male life expectancy increased by 6.23 years in the period 2007-2017, mainly due to a decrease in mortality from external causes of death (2.12 years), cardiovascular diseases (1.84 years) and alcohol-related disorders (0.86 years). Reduced male mortality in the 30-64 years age group also contributed to a large increase in male life expectancy during the same period.
The greatest positive effect of reduced alcohol-related mortality to male life expectancy was observed during the period 2007-2009. It overlaps with the start of implementation of the comprehensive alcohol control measures. However, further research on the impact of different alcohol policy interventions on various outcomes is needed.
近几十年来，与其他国家相比，立陶宛报告的与酒精相关的伤害和死亡率指标非常高。由于这个原因，早在 2007 年和 2016 年就采取了全面的循证酒精控制政策措施。本研究的目的是研究 2000-2017 年期间，随着酒精控制政策的变化，与酒精相关的男性死亡率。
生命表分解法用于估计在 2000-2017 年期间，年龄组和死因在多大程度上导致男性预期寿命的变化。此外，还使用时间序列干预模型研究了酒精控制措施对与酒精相关的死亡率的影响。拟合了季节性自回归综合移动平均模型。
2007-2017 年期间，男性预期寿命增加了 6.23 岁，主要是由于外部原因（2.12 岁）、心血管疾病（1.84 岁）和与酒精相关的疾病（0.86 岁）死亡率下降。30-64 岁年龄组男性死亡率的降低也导致了同期男性预期寿命的大幅增加。
减少与酒精相关的死亡率对男性预期寿命的最大积极影响是在 2007-2009 年期间观察到的。这与全面酒精控制措施的实施开始时间重叠。然而，需要进一步研究不同的酒精政策干预措施对各种结果的影响。
