Rovira Pol, Belian Gražina, Ferreira-Borges Carina, Kilian Carolin, Neufeld Maria, Tran Alexander, Štelemėkas Mindaugas, Rehm Jürgen
Public Health Agency of Catalonia, Barcelona, Spain.
Tobacco and Alcohol Control Department, Vilnius, Lithuania.
Nordisk Alkohol Nark. 2022 Feb;39(1):25-37. doi: 10.1177/14550725211021318. Epub 2021 Jun 28.
The aim of this contribution was to estimate the impact of the last significant alcohol taxation increase in Lithuania in 2017 on alcohol consumption, incident cancer cases, and cancer mortality, as well as the number of cancer outcomes that could have potentially been averted in 2018 had larger increases in alcohol excise taxation been applied.
Statistical modelling was used to estimate the change in alcohol per capita consumption following the tax increase, and alcohol-attributable fraction methodology was then used to estimate the associated cancer incidence and mortality. Potential increases of current excise duties were modelled in two steps. First, beverage-specific price elasticities of demand were used to predict the associated decreases in consumption and cancer outcomes, and second, the outcomes arising from the actual numbers and the modelled numbers were compared.
Data were taken from the following sources: alcohol consumption data from Statistics Lithuania and the WHO, cancer data from the International Agency of Research on Cancer, and risk relations and elasticities of demand from published meta-analyses.
A total of 15,857 new cancer cases (8,031 in women and 7,826 in men) and 8,534 cancer deaths (3,757 in women and 4,777 in men) were recorded in Lithuania in 2018. Using the attributable fraction methodology, we estimate that 4.8% of 761 of these new cancer cases were attributable to alcohol use (284 in women; 477 in men), as well as 5.5% or 466 cancer deaths (115 in women; 351 in men). With the taxation increase of 2017, 45 new cases and 24 deaths will be averted over the next 10 years. Further taxation increases of 100% could double the number of new cancer cases averted or saved.
In a high-consumption European country like Lithuania, alcohol use is an important and avoidable risk factor for cancer. Taxation is an important measure to reduce the alcohol-attributable cancer burden.
本研究旨在评估2017年立陶宛上次大幅提高酒精税对酒精消费、癌症发病病例、癌症死亡率的影响，以及如果2018年大幅提高酒精消费税，可能避免的癌症病例数量。
采用统计模型来估计税收增加后人均酒精消费量的变化，然后使用酒精归因分数方法来估计相关的癌症发病率和死亡率。当前消费税的潜在增加分两步进行建模。首先，使用特定饮料的需求价格弹性来预测消费量和癌症结局的相关下降，其次，比较实际数字和建模数字产生的结果。
数据来自以下来源：立陶宛统计局和世界卫生组织的酒精消费数据、国际癌症研究机构的癌症数据，以及已发表的荟萃分析中的风险关系和需求弹性。
2018年立陶宛共记录了15857例新癌症病例（女性8031例，男性7826例）和8534例癌症死亡（女性3757例，男性4777例）。使用归因分数方法，我们估计这些新癌症病例中的761例（女性284例；男性477例）的4.8%可归因于饮酒，以及5.5%或466例癌症死亡（女性115例；男性351例）可归因于饮酒。随着2017年税收的增加，未来10年将避免45例新病例和24例死亡。进一步提高100%的税收可能会使避免或挽救的新癌症病例数量翻倍。
在立陶宛这样的高消费欧洲国家，饮酒是癌症的一个重要且可避免的风险因素。税收是减轻酒精所致癌症负担的一项重要措施。
