Wang Lin, Li Xiang
1Adaptive Networks and Control Laboratory, Department of Electronic Engineering, Fudan University, Shanghai, 200433 China.
2Centre for Chaos and Complex Networks, Department of Electronic Engineering, City University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong SAR, China.
Chin Sci Bull. 2014;59(28):3511-3522. doi: 10.1007/s11434-014-0499-8. Epub 2014 Jul 19.
An emerging disease is one infectious epidemic caused by a newly transmissible pathogen, which has either appeared for the first time or already existed in human populations, having the capacity to increase rapidly in incidence as well as geographic range. Adapting to human immune system, emerging diseases may trigger large-scale pandemic spreading, such as the transnational spreading of SARS, the global outbreak of A(H1N1), and the recent potential invasion of avian influenza A(H7N9). To study the dynamics mediating the transmission of emerging diseases, spatial epidemiology of networked metapopulation provides a valuable modeling framework, which takes spatially distributed factors into consideration. This review elaborates the latest progresses on the spatial metapopulation dynamics, discusses empirical and theoretical findings that verify the validity of networked metapopulations, and the sketches application in evaluating the effectiveness of disease intervention strategies as well.
新发疾病是由一种新出现的可传播病原体引起的传染性流行病,这种病原体要么是首次出现,要么已在人群中存在,并且有能力在发病率和地理范围上迅速增加。适应人类免疫系统后,新发疾病可能引发大规模的全球流行,如严重急性呼吸综合征(SARS)的跨国传播、甲型H1N1流感的全球爆发以及近期甲型H7N9禽流感的潜在侵袭。为了研究介导新发疾病传播的动力学,网络化集合种群的空间流行病学提供了一个有价值的建模框架,该框架考虑了空间分布因素。本文综述阐述了空间集合种群动力学的最新进展,讨论了验证网络化集合种群有效性的实证和理论发现,并概述了其在评估疾病干预策略有效性方面的应用。