Department of Chronic Disease Control, Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Wuxi, Jiangsu, China.
PLoS One. 2020 Apr 1;15(4):e0231007. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0231007. eCollection 2020.
To achieve the goal of "healthy China 2030", reasonable health policies must be developed based on the changes of death spectrum. We aim to investigate the temporal patterns of life expectancy (LE) and age/cause-specific contributions from 1990 to 2016.
Joinpoint regression model was used with Arriaga's decomposition method.
LE in China has reached to 76.3 years in 2016 with an increase of 9.44 years from 1990. From 1990 to 2002, a remarkable reduction in infant mortality accounted for an increase of 1.27 years (35.39%) to LE which mainly resulted from diarrhea, lower respiratory, and other common infectious diseases (1.00 years, 27.79%). After 2002, those aged 65+ years contributed most to increased LE and the most prominent causes included cardiovascular diseases (0.67 years, 23.36%), chronic respiratory diseases (0.54 years, 18.76%) and neoplasms (0.39 years, 13.44%). Moreover, the effects of transport injuries changed from negative to positive. After 2007, contributions of transport and unintentional injuries increased especially for males. And for females contributions of cardiovascular diseases sharply increased LE by 1.17 years (32.26%).
More attention should be paid to cardiovascular diseases, chronic respiratory diseases and neoplasms which were mainly attributed to the increase of LE, especially for males and elderly population.
为实现“健康中国 2030”的目标，必须根据死亡谱的变化制定合理的卫生政策。本研究旨在探讨 1990 年至 2016 年期间预期寿命（LE）的时间变化趋势及年龄/死因的贡献。
采用 Joinpoint 回归模型和 Arriaga 分解法。
2016 年中国的 LE 达到 76.3 岁，比 1990 年增加了 9.44 岁。1990 年至 2002 年，婴儿死亡率的显著下降对 LE 的增长贡献了 1.27 岁（35.39%），主要归因于腹泻、下呼吸道和其他常见传染病（1.00 岁，27.79%）。2002 年后，65 岁以上人群对 LE 的增长贡献最大，主要死因包括心血管疾病（0.67 岁，23.36%）、慢性呼吸系统疾病（0.54 岁，18.76%）和恶性肿瘤（0.39 岁，13.44%）。此外，交通伤害的作用由负转正。2007 年后，交通和非故意伤害的贡献增加，尤其是男性。女性心血管疾病对 LE 的贡献急剧增加 1.17 岁（32.26%）。
应更加关注心血管疾病、慢性呼吸系统疾病和恶性肿瘤，这些疾病是 LE 增加的主要原因，尤其是男性和老年人群。
