Lee P, Lam P T I, Yik F W H, Chan E H W
Department of Building & Real Estate, The Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hung Hom, Kowloon, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region.
Department of Building Services Engineering, The Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hung Hom, Kowloon, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region.
Energy Build. 2013 Nov;66:353-363. doi: 10.1016/j.enbuild.2013.07.018. Epub 2013 Jul 16.
Lack of a proper assessment method on performance risks in Energy Performance Contracting (EPC) projects is one of the reasons hindering the further development of energy service companies (ESCOs) market. This paper proposes a simulation-based method to evaluate the probability of energy saving shortfall taking into account the variations in the influential parameters, including weather conditions, occupancy, operating hours, thermostat set-point, etc., during the contract period. The proposed method involves the use of a detailed building energy simulation programme, sensitivity analysis and Monte Carlo simulation techniques. Empirical data is also used to develop the probability distribution functions for the identified parameters to simulate the actual yearly variations in the post-retrofit conditions. A real case study of replacement of heat rejection system for a central chiller plant in Hong Kong is used to demonstrate the application of this probabilistic method. The result shows that the possible energy savings after a 1-year retrofit period ranges from 393,000 kW h (2.86%) to 1098,000 kW h (10.8%) with 90% statistical significance.
缺乏对能源绩效合同（EPC）项目绩效风险的适当评估方法是阻碍能源服务公司（ESCOs）市场进一步发展的原因之一。本文提出了一种基于模拟的方法，用于评估在合同期内考虑到包括天气条件、占用情况、运营时间、恒温器设定点等影响参数变化的节能不足概率。所提出的方法涉及使用详细的建筑能源模拟程序、敏感性分析和蒙特卡洛模拟技术。还使用经验数据来开发已识别参数的概率分布函数，以模拟改造后条件下的实际年度变化。以香港一个中央冷水机组的排热系统更换的实际案例研究来证明这种概率方法的应用。结果表明，经过1年的改造期后，可能的节能量在393,000千瓦时（2.86%）至1,098,000千瓦时（10.8%）之间，具有90%的统计显著性。
