Galaz Victor, Österblom Henrik, Bodin Örjan, Crona Beatrice
1Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University, 10691 Stockholm, Sweden.
2Global Economic Dynamics and the Biosphere, Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences, 114 18 Stockholm, Sweden.
Int Environ Agreem. 2016;16(2):189-221. doi: 10.1007/s10784-014-9253-6. Epub 2014 May 1.
The existence of "tipping points" in human-environmental systems at multiple scales-such as abrupt negative changes in coral reef ecosystems, "runaway" climate change, and interacting nonlinear "planetary boundaries"-is often viewed as a substantial challenge for governance due to their inherent uncertainty, potential for rapid and large system change, and possible cascading effects on human well-being. Despite an increased scholarly and policy interest in the dynamics of these perceived "tipping points," institutional and governance scholars have yet to make progress on how to analyze in which ways state and non-state actors attempt to anticipate, respond, and prevent the transgression of "tipping points" at large scales. In this article, we use three cases of global network responses to what we denote as global change-induced "tipping points"-ocean acidification, fisheries collapse, and infectious disease outbreaks. Based on the commonalities in several research streams, we develop four working propositions: information processing and early warning, multilevel and multinetwork responses, diversity in response capacity, and the balance between efficiency and legitimacy. We conclude by proposing a simple framework for the analysis of the interplay between perceived global change-induced "tipping points," global networks, and international institutions.
人类环境系统在多个尺度上存在“临界点”，比如珊瑚礁生态系统的突然负面变化、“失控”的气候变化以及相互作用的非线性“地球边界”，由于其固有的不确定性、引发系统快速大幅变化的可能性以及对人类福祉可能产生的连锁效应，这些“临界点”往往被视为治理面临的重大挑战。尽管学术界和政策界对这些被认为的“临界点”的动态越来越感兴趣，但制度和治理学者在如何分析国家和非国家行为体试图在哪些方面大规模预测、应对和防止“临界点”被突破上尚未取得进展。在本文中，我们使用了三个全球网络应对我们所称的全球变化引发的“临界点”的案例——海洋酸化、渔业崩溃和传染病爆发。基于多个研究方向的共性，我们提出了四个工作命题：信息处理与早期预警、多层次和多网络应对、应对能力的多样性以及效率与合法性之间的平衡。我们通过提出一个简单框架来分析被认为的全球变化引发的“临界点”、全球网络和国际机构之间的相互作用来得出结论。
