Heinze Christoph, Blenckner Thorsten, Martins Helena, Rusiecka Dagmara, Döscher Ralf, Gehlen Marion, Gruber Nicolas, Holland Elisabeth, Hov Øystein, Joos Fortunat, Matthews John Brian Robin, Rødven Rolf, Wilson Simon
Geophysical Institute, University of Bergen, 5020 Bergen, Norway;
Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, University of Bergen, 5020 Bergen, Norway.
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2021 Mar 2;118(9). doi: 10.1073/pnas.2008478118.
Anthropogenic climate change profoundly alters the ocean's environmental conditions, which, in turn, impact marine ecosystems. Some of these changes are happening fast and may be difficult to reverse. The identification and monitoring of such changes, which also includes tipping points, is an ongoing and emerging research effort. Prevention of negative impacts requires mitigation efforts based on feasible research-based pathways. Climate-induced tipping points are traditionally associated with singular catastrophic events (relative to natural variations) of dramatic negative impact. High-probability high-impact ocean tipping points due to warming, ocean acidification, and deoxygenation may be more fragmented both regionally and in time but add up to global dimensions. These tipping points in combination with gradual changes need to be addressed as seriously as singular catastrophic events in order to prevent the cumulative and often compounding negative societal and Earth system impacts.
人为气候变化深刻改变了海洋环境条件,进而影响海洋生态系统。其中一些变化发生迅速,可能难以逆转。识别和监测此类变化,包括临界点,是一项正在进行且不断涌现的研究工作。预防负面影响需要基于可行的、以研究为基础的途径进行缓解努力。传统上,气候引发的临界点与具有巨大负面影响的单一灾难性事件(相对于自然变化而言)相关联。由变暖、海洋酸化和脱氧导致的高概率、高影响的海洋临界点在区域和时间上可能更加分散,但累积起来具有全球影响。为防止累积且往往相互叠加的负面社会和地球系统影响,这些临界点与渐进变化需要像单一灾难性事件一样得到认真对待。