China Institute of Regulation Research, Zhejiang University of Finance & Economics, Xueyuan Road 18, Hangzhou, 310018, China.
School of Public Affairs, Zhejiang University, Yuhangtang Road 866, Hangzhou, 310058, China.
Environ Pollut. 2020 Aug;263(Pt B):114541. doi: 10.1016/j.envpol.2020.114541. Epub 2020 Apr 7.
Based on the panel data of 63 counties of Zhejiang Province from 2003 to 2017, this paper studied the total-factor substitution efficiency of chemical fertilizer input and its spatial-temporal evolution by using the Super-efficiency DEA(Data Envelopment Analysis) model, locational Gini coefficient and Theil index. And the driving factors of the total-factor substitution efficiency of chemical fertilizer input were analyzed by constructing the Panel Tobit model. The results showed that: the comprehensive efficiency of total-factor substitution for chemical fertilizer input in Zhejiang Province is low, and technical efficiency is the main drive for promoting comprehensive efficiency; Gini coefficient is below the warning line of 0.4, and the difference of substitution efficiency, relatively small, mainly comes from the contribution within the region, and the difference ratio of contribution by the Southwestern Zhejiang is rapidly increasing. In detail, financial investment in agriculture serve as the greatest the driving force, and government chemical fertilizer input subsidies have a significantly negative effect. Therefore, we should improve the subsidy policy system, increase government investment in agricultural infrastructure, adjust the structure of agroindustry and improve the income of rural residents under the premise of reducing the fertilizer input intensity.
基于 2003-2017 年浙江省 63 个县的面板数据，运用超效率 DEA（数据包络分析）模型、区位基尼系数和泰尔指数，研究了化肥投入的全要素替代效率及其时空演变，并通过构建面板 Tobit 模型分析了化肥投入全要素替代效率的驱动因素。结果表明：浙江省化肥投入全要素替代综合效率较低，技术效率是推动综合效率的主要动力；基尼系数低于 0.4 的警戒线，替代效率的差异较小，主要来源于区域内的贡献，且浙西南地区的贡献差异比快速增加。具体而言，农业财政投入是最大的驱动力，政府化肥投入补贴则有显著的负向作用。因此，在降低化肥投入强度的前提下，我们应完善补贴政策体系，增加政府对农业基础设施的投资，调整农产业结构，提高农村居民收入。
