Driving factors of total-factor substitution efficiency of chemical fertilizer input and related environmental regulation policy: A case study of Zhejiang Province.

Based on the panel data of 63 counties of Zhejiang Province from 2003 to 2017, this paper studied the total-factor substitution efficiency of chemical fertilizer input and its spatial-temporal evolution by using the Super-efficiency DEA(Data Envelopment Analysis) model, locational Gini coefficient and Theil index. And the driving factors of the total-factor substitution efficiency of chemical fertilizer input were analyzed by constructing the Panel Tobit model. The results showed that: the comprehensive efficiency of total-factor substitution for chemical fertilizer input in Zhejiang Province is low, and technical efficiency is the main drive for promoting comprehensive efficiency; Gini coefficient is below the warning line of 0.4, and the difference of substitution efficiency, relatively small, mainly comes from the contribution within the region, and the difference ratio of contribution by the Southwestern Zhejiang is rapidly increasing. In detail, financial investment in agriculture serve as the greatest the driving force, and government chemical fertilizer input subsidies have a significantly negative effect. Therefore, we should improve the subsidy policy system, increase government investment in agricultural infrastructure, adjust the structure of agroindustry and improve the income of rural residents under the premise of reducing the fertilizer input intensity.