West China School of Public Health and West China Fourth Hospital, Sichuan University, No. 17, Section 3, Ren Min Nan Road, Chengdu, 610041, Sichuan, China.
Medical College, Northwest Minzu University, Lanzhou, China.
Environ Sci Pollut Res Int. 2020 Jun;27(18):22946-22955. doi: 10.1007/s11356-020-08843-9. Epub 2020 Apr 23.
The serious ambient fine particulate matter (PM) is one of the key risk factors for lung cancer. However, existing studies on the health effects of PM in China were less considered the regional transport of PM concentration. In this study, we aim to explore the association between lung cancer and PM and then forecast the PM2.5-induced lung cancer morbidity and mortality in China. Ridge regression (RR), partial least squares regression (PLSR), model tree-based (MT) regression, regression tree (RT) approach, and the combined forecasting model (CFM) were alternative forecasting models. The result of the Pearson correlation analysis showed that both local and regional scale PM concentration had a significant association with lung cancer mortality and morbidity and compared with the local lag and regional lag exposure to ambient PM; the regional lag effect (0.1720.235 for mortality; 0.1460.249 for morbidity) was not stronger than the local lag PM exposure (0.2490.294 for mortality; 0.2150.301 for morbidity). The overall forecasting lung cancer morbidity and mortality were 47.63, 47.86, 39.38, and 39.76 per 100,000 population. The spatial distributions of lung cancer morbidity and mortality share a similar spatial pattern in 2015 and 2016, with high lung cancer morbidity and mortality areas mainly located in the central to east coast areas in China. The stakeholders would like to implement a cross-regional PM control strategy for the areas characterized as a high risk of lung cancer.
严重的环境细颗粒物（PM）是肺癌的关键风险因素之一。然而，中国现有的关于 PM 对健康影响的研究较少考虑 PM 浓度的区域传输。在这项研究中，我们旨在探索肺癌与 PM 之间的关系，然后预测中国 PM2.5 引起的肺癌发病率和死亡率。岭回归（RR）、偏最小二乘回归（PLSR）、基于树的模型（MT）回归、回归树（RT）方法和组合预测模型（CFM）是替代预测模型。Pearson 相关分析的结果表明，局部和区域尺度的 PM 浓度与肺癌死亡率和发病率均有显著关联，与局部滞后和区域滞后暴露于环境 PM 相比，区域滞后效应（死亡率为 0.1720.235；发病率为 0.1460.249）并不强于局部滞后 PM 暴露（死亡率为 0.2490.294；发病率为 0.2150.301）。预测的肺癌发病率和死亡率分别为 2015 年和 2016 年每 10 万人 47.63 例和 47.86 例，39.38 例和 39.76 例。肺癌发病率和死亡率的空间分布在 2015 年和 2016 年具有相似的空间模式，高发病率和死亡率地区主要位于中国中东部沿海地区。利益相关者希望实施跨区域 PM 控制策略，以控制高肺癌风险地区。
