University of Saskatchewan, Saskatoon, Saskatchewan, Canada.
University of Canterbury, Christchurch, New Zealand.
Assessment. 2021 Sep;28(6):1671-1693. doi: 10.1177/1073191120914405. Epub 2020 Apr 26.
The present study examined the discrimination and calibration properties of Violence Risk Scale-Sexual Offense version (VRS-SO) risk and change scores for sexual and violent recidivism as a function of age at release, on a combined sample of 1,287 men who had attended sexual offense-specific treatment services. The key aim was to examine to what extent VRS-SO scores can accurately discriminate recidivists from nonrecidivists among older cohorts, and if the existing age-related adjustments in the instrument adequately correct for increasing age. VRS-SO risk and change scores showed consistent properties of discrimination for sexual recidivism across the age cohorts, via area under the curve and Cox regression survival analysis, as demonstrated through fixed effects meta-analysis. Calibration analyses, employing logistic regression, demonstrated that age at release was consistently incrementally predictive of violent, but not sexual, recidivism after controlling for individual differences on static and dynamic risk factors. E/O index analyses demonstrated that predicted rates of sexual recidivism from VRS-SO scores, particularly when employed with Static-99R, were not significantly different from those observed among age cohorts; however, calibration was weaker for general violence. Implications for use of the VRS-SO in sexual recidivism risk assessment with older offenders are discussed.
本研究考察了在一个包含 1287 名曾接受过特定于性犯罪治疗服务的男性的综合样本中，作为释放年龄的函数，性暴力风险量表-性犯罪版本（VRS-SO）的风险和变化分数在性和暴力累犯方面的区分度和校准特性。主要目的是考察 VRS-SO 分数在多大程度上可以准确区分老年群体中的累犯和非累犯，以及仪器中现有的与年龄相关的调整是否充分纠正了年龄的增长。通过固定效应荟萃分析，VRS-SO 风险和变化分数通过曲线下面积和 Cox 回归生存分析，在各个年龄组中对性累犯具有一致的区分特性。校准分析，采用逻辑回归，表明在控制静态和动态风险因素的个体差异后，释放年龄始终是暴力但不是性累犯的递增预测因子。E/O 指数分析表明，VRS-SO 分数预测的性累犯率，特别是与静态-99R 一起使用时，与年龄组之间观察到的比率没有显著差异；然而，对一般暴力的校准较弱。讨论了在对老年罪犯进行性累犯风险评估中使用 VRS-SO 的影响。
