Coupland Richard B A, Olver Mark E
University of Saskatchewan, Saskatoon, Saskatchewan, Canada.
Assessment. 2020 Dec;27(8):1886-1900. doi: 10.1177/1073191118797440. Epub 2018 Sep 2.
The present study featured an investigation of the predictive properties of risk and change scores of two violence risk assessment and treatment planning tools-the Violence Risk Scale (VRS) and the Historical, Clinical, Risk-20, Version 2 (HCR-20)-in sample of 178 treated adult male violent offenders who attended a high-intensity violence reduction program. The cases were rated on the VRS and HCR-20 using archival information sources and followed up nearly 10 years postrelease. Associations of HCR-20 and VRS risk and change scores with postprogram institutional and community recidivism were examined. VRS and HCR-20 scores converged in conceptually meaningful ways, supporting the construct validity of the tools for violence risk. Receiver operating characteristic curve analyses demonstrated moderate- to high-predictive accuracy of VRS and HCR-20 scores for violent and general community recidivism, but weaker accuracy for postprogram institutional recidivism. Cox regression survival analyses demonstrated that positive pretreatment and posttreatment changes, as assessed via the HCR-20 and VRS, were each significantly associated with reductions in violent and general community recidivism, as well as serious institutional misconducts, after controlling for baseline pretreatment score. Implications for use of the HCR-20 and VRS for dynamic violence risk assessment and management are discussed.
本研究对178名参加高强度暴力减少项目的成年男性暴力罪犯样本，调查了两种暴力风险评估与治疗规划工具——暴力风险量表（VRS）和历史临床风险-20第二版（HCR-20）——的风险及变化分数的预测特性。利用档案信息来源对这些案例进行VRS和HCR-20评分，并在释放后近10年进行随访。研究考察了HCR-20和VRS的风险及变化分数与项目后机构和社区再犯之间的关联。VRS和HCR-20分数以概念上有意义的方式趋同，支持了这些工具用于暴力风险的结构效度。受试者工作特征曲线分析表明，VRS和HCR-20分数对暴力和一般社区再犯具有中度到高度的预测准确性，但对项目后机构再犯的准确性较弱。Cox回归生存分析表明，在控制基线预处理分数后，通过HCR-20和VRS评估的治疗前和治疗后积极变化，均与暴力和一般社区再犯以及严重机构不当行为的减少显著相关。文中讨论了使用HCR-20和VRS进行动态暴力风险评估和管理的意义。
