Faculty of Civil Engineering and Mechanics, Jiangsu University, Zhenjiang 212013, China.
Int J Environ Res Public Health. 2023 Feb 3;20(3):2750. doi: 10.3390/ijerph20032750.
In the context of climate change, heat waves are a serious hazard having significant impacts on human health, especially vulnerable populations. Many studies have researched the association between extreme heat and mortality. In the context of urban planning, many studies have explored the cooling effect of green roofs, parks, urban forests and urban gardens. Nevertheless, few studies have analyzed the effect mechanism of specific ecosystem services (Ess) as mitigation measures to heat waves. This study aimed to determine the relationship among Ess, heat waves and the heat-related mortality risk of different groups by diseases, age and sex. The research was conducted in three cities in Jiangsu Province, including Nanjing, Suzhou and Yancheng. We quantified five ecosystem services, i.e., water supply service, carbon sequestration service, cooling service, biodiversity and cultural service. Based on the previous studies, we took the frequency of heat waves into account, extending the concept of the Heat Wave Magnitude Index (HWMI). A distributed lag nonlinear model (DLNM) was applied to estimate the effect of extreme heat on mortality. Then, the study used the process analysis method to explore the relationship among Ess, heat waves and heat-related mortality risks. The results indicated that (i) water supply service, carbon sequestration service, cooling service and biodiversity can reduce heat-related mortality while cultural service increases; (ii) the effects of carbon sequestration service and cultural service are stronger than other Ess; (iii) the effects of Ess on cardiorespiratory disease, stroke and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) mortality risks are higher than others; and (iv) women and elderly heat-related mortality risks are more affected by the Ess. This study can provide a theoretical support for policy makers to mitigate heatwave events, thus limiting heat-related mortality.
在气候变化的背景下，热浪是对人类健康构成严重威胁的一个因素，尤其对弱势群体的影响更大。许多研究都探讨了极端高温与死亡率之间的关系。在城市规划方面，许多研究都探索了绿色屋顶、公园、城市森林和城市花园的降温效应。然而，很少有研究分析特定生态系统服务（Ess）作为缓解热浪措施的影响机制。本研究旨在确定 Ess、热浪和不同疾病、年龄和性别的人群的热相关死亡率风险之间的关系。该研究在江苏省的三个城市南京、苏州和盐城进行。我们量化了五种生态系统服务，即供水服务、碳固存服务、降温服务、生物多样性和文化服务。基于先前的研究，我们考虑了热浪的频率，扩展了热浪强度指数（HWMI）的概念。采用分布式滞后非线性模型（DLNM）来估计极端高温对死亡率的影响。然后，研究采用过程分析方法来探讨 Ess、热浪和热相关死亡率风险之间的关系。结果表明：（i）供水服务、碳固存服务、降温服务和生物多样性可以降低热相关死亡率，而文化服务则会增加；（ii）碳固存服务和文化服务的影响大于其他 Ess；（iii） Ess 对心血管疾病、中风和慢性阻塞性肺疾病（COPD）死亡率风险的影响大于其他因素；（iv）女性和老年人的热相关死亡率风险更容易受到 Ess 的影响。本研究可以为决策者提供理论支持，以减轻热浪事件，从而限制热相关死亡率。
