McAleer Michael, Huang Bing-Wen, Kuo Hsiao-I, Chen Chi-Chung, Chang Chia-Lin
Econometric Institute, Erasmus School of Economics, Erasmus University Rotterdam, and Tinbergen Institute, The Netherlands, Japan.
Center for International Research on the Japanese Economy (CIRJE), Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo, Japan.
Environ Model Softw. 2010 Jan;25(1):100-106. doi: 10.1016/j.envsoft.2009.07.015. Epub 2009 Aug 20.
This paper compares the impacts of SARS and human deaths arising from Avian Flu on international tourist arrivals to Asia. The effects of SARS and human deaths from Avian Flu are compared directly according to the number of human deaths. The nature of the short run and long run relationship is examined empirically by estimating a static line fixed effect model and a difference transformation dynamic model, respectively. Empirical results from the static fixed effect and difference transformation dynamic models are consistent, and indicate that both the short run and long run SARS effect have a more significant impact on international tourist arrivals than does Avian Flu. In addition, the effects of deaths arising from both SARS and Avian Flu suggest that SARS is more important to international tourist arrivals than is Avian Flu. Thus, while Avian Flu is here to stay, its effect is currently not as significant as that of SARS.
本文比较了非典和禽流感导致的人类死亡对亚洲国际游客到访量的影响。根据人类死亡数量直接比较了非典和禽流感导致的人类死亡的影响。分别通过估计静态线性固定效应模型和差分变换动态模型，实证检验了短期和长期关系的性质。静态固定效应模型和差分变换动态模型的实证结果是一致的，表明非典的短期和长期影响对国际游客到访量的影响比禽流感更为显著。此外，非典和禽流感导致的死亡影响表明，非典对国际游客到访量比禽流感更为重要。因此，虽然禽流感将持续存在，但其目前的影响不如非典显著。
