Bekker René, Uit Het Broek Michiel, Koole Ger
LCPS - Landelijk Coördinatiecentrum Patiënten Spreiding, the Netherlands.
Department of Mathematics, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, the Netherlands.
Eur J Oper Res. 2023 Jan 1;304(1):207-218. doi: 10.1016/j.ejor.2021.12.044. Epub 2022 Jan 5.
We describe the models we built for predicting hospital admissions and bed occupancy of COVID-19 patients in the Netherlands. These models were used to make short-term decisions about transfers of patients between regions and for long-term policy making. For forecasting admissions we developed a new technique using linear programming. To predict occupancy we fitted residual lengths of stay and used results from queueing theory. Our models increased the accuracy of and trust in the predictions and helped manage the pandemic, minimizing the impact in terms of beds and maximizing remaining capacity for other types of care.
我们描述了我们为预测荷兰新冠肺炎患者的住院情况和床位占用情况而构建的模型。这些模型被用于做出关于患者在不同地区之间转移的短期决策以及长期政策制定。为了预测住院人数，我们开发了一种使用线性规划的新技术。为了预测床位占用情况，我们拟合了剩余住院时长，并运用了排队论的结果。我们的模型提高了预测的准确性和可信度，并有助于管理疫情，将床位方面的影响降至最低，同时最大限度地提高其他类型护理的剩余能力。
