School of Biological Sciences, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA, USA.
School of Physics, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA, USA.
Nat Med. 2020 Jun;26(6):849-854. doi: 10.1038/s41591-020-0895-3. Epub 2020 May 7.
The COVID-19 pandemic has precipitated a global crisis, with more than 1,430,000 confirmed cases and more than 85,000 confirmed deaths globally as of 9 April 2020. Mitigation and suppression of new infections have emerged as the two predominant public health control strategies. Both strategies focus on reducing new infections by limiting human-to-human interactions, which could be both socially and economically unsustainable in the long term. We have developed and analyzed an epidemiological intervention model that leverages serological tests to identify and deploy recovered individuals as focal points for sustaining safer interactions via interaction substitution, developing what we term 'shield immunity' at the population scale. The objective of a shield immunity strategy is to help to sustain the interactions necessary for the functioning of essential goods and services while reducing the probability of transmission. Our shield immunity approach could substantively reduce the length and reduce the overall burden of the current outbreak, and can work synergistically with social distancing. The present model highlights the value of serological testing as part of intervention strategies, in addition to its well-recognized roles in estimating prevalence and in the potential development of plasma-based therapies.
截至 2020 年 4 月 9 日，COVID-19 大流行已引发全球危机，全球确诊病例超过 143 万例，死亡超过 8.5 万例。减轻和抑制新感染已成为两种主要的公共卫生控制策略。这两种策略都侧重于通过限制人与人之间的接触来减少新的感染，而从长期来看，这在社会和经济上可能是不可持续的。我们已经开发和分析了一种流行病学干预模型，该模型利用血清学检测来识别和部署康复者作为通过互动替代维持更安全互动的焦点，从而在人群中形成我们所谓的“盾牌免疫”。盾牌免疫策略的目标是帮助维持必要商品和服务运作所需的互动，同时降低传播的概率。我们的盾牌免疫方法可以实质性地缩短当前疫情的持续时间并减轻其整体负担，并可以与社会隔离协同发挥作用。本模型突出了血清学检测作为干预策略一部分的价值，除了其在估计流行率和潜在开发基于血浆的疗法方面的公认作用。
