College of Economics and Management, Hunan University of Arts and Science, Changde, China; Wuhan University of Technology, Wuhan, Hubei, China.
School of Business, Huzhou University, Huzhou, Zhejiang, China.
Sci Total Environ. 2020 Aug 10;729:138916. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.138916. Epub 2020 Apr 22.
This study attempts to document the nexus between weather, COVID-19 outbreak in Wuhan and the Chinese economy. We used daily average temperature (hourly data), daily new confirmed cases of COVID-19 in Wuhan, and RMB (Chinese currency) exchange rate to represent the weather, COVID-19 outbreak and the Chinese economy, respectively. The methodology of Wavelet Transform Coherence (WTC), Partial Wavelet Coherence (PWC) and Multiple Wavelet Coherence (MWC) is employed to analyze the daily data collected from 21st January 2020 to 31st March 2020. The results have revealed a significant coherence between the series at different time-frequency combinations. The overall results suggest the insignificance of an increase in temperature to contain or slow down the new COVID-19 infections. The RMB exchange rate and the COVID-19 showed an out phase coherence at specific time-frequency spots suggesting a negative but limited impact of the COVID-19 outbreak in Wuhan on the Chinese export economy. Our results are contrary to many earlier studies which suggest a significant role of temperature in slowing down the COVID-19 spread. These results can have important policy implications for the containment of COVID-19 spread and macro-economic management with respect to changes in the weather.
本研究试图记录天气、武汉 COVID-19 疫情爆发与中国经济之间的关系。我们分别用日平均气温（小时数据）、武汉每日新增 COVID-19 确诊病例和人民币（中国货币）汇率来表示天气、COVID-19 疫情爆发和中国经济。采用小波变换相干（WTC）、偏小波相干（PWC）和多小波相干（MWC）方法分析了 2020 年 1 月 21 日至 2020 年 3 月 31 日收集的日数据。结果表明，不同时间-频率组合的序列之间存在显著的相干性。总体结果表明，气温升高并不能控制或减缓新的 COVID-19 感染。人民币汇率和 COVID-19 在特定的时间-频率点上表现出相反的相干性，这表明武汉 COVID-19 疫情对中国出口经济的负面影响有限。我们的研究结果与许多早期研究相反，这些研究表明，温度在减缓 COVID-19 传播方面起着重要作用。这些结果对 COVID-19 传播的控制和与天气变化相关的宏观经济管理具有重要的政策意义。
