Supari Supari, Nuryanto Danang Eko, Setiawan Amsari Mudzakir, Alfahmi Furqon, Sopaheluwakan Ardhasena, Hanggoro Wido, Gustari Indra, Safril Agus, Yunita Rezky, Makmur Erwin Eka Syahputra, Swarinoto Yunus
Division of Climate Variability Analysis, Center for Climate Change Information, Indonesian Agency for Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics (BMKG), Jl. Angkasa I, No 2, Kemayoran, Jakarta, 10720 Indonesia.
Center for Research and Development, Indonesian Agency for Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics (BMKG), Jakarta, 10720 Indonesia.
Environ Sustain (Singap). 2021;4(3):569-578. doi: 10.1007/s42398-021-00202-9. Epub 2021 Aug 29.
On March 2, 2020, the first (COVID-19) case was reported in Jakarta, Indonesia. One and a half months later (15/05/2020), the cumulative number of infection cases was 16,496, with a total of 1076 mortalities. This study investigates the possible role of weather in the early cases of COVID-19 in six selected cities in Indonesia. Daily temperature and relative humidity data from weather stations nearby in each city were collected from March 3 to April 30, 2020, corresponding with COVID-19 incidence. Correlation tests and regression analysis were performed to examine the association of those two data series. Moreover, we analyzed the distribution of COVID-19 referring the weather data to estimate the effective range of weather data supporting the COVID-19 incidence. Our result reveals that weather data is generally associated with COVID-19 incidence. The daily average temperature (T-ave) and relative humidity (RH) present significant positive and negative correlation with COVID-19 data, respectively. However, the correlation coefficients are weak, with the strongest correlations found at the 5-day lag, i.e., 0.37 (- 0.41) for T-ave (RH). The regression analysis consistently confirmed this relation. The distribution analysis reveals that most COVID-19 cases in Indonesia occurred in the daily temperature range of 25-31 °C and relative humidity of 74-92%. Our findings suggest that COVID-19 incidence in Indonesia has a weak association with weather conditions. Therefore, non-meteorological factors seem to play a more prominent role and should be given greater consideration in preventing the spread of COVID-19.
The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s42398-021-00202-9.
2020年3月2日，印度尼西亚雅加达报告了首例新型冠状病毒肺炎（COVID-19）病例。一个半月后（2020年5月15日），累计感染病例数为16496例，死亡1076例。本研究调查了天气在印度尼西亚六个选定城市COVID-19早期病例中可能发挥的作用。收集了2020年3月3日至4月30日各城市附近气象站的每日气温和相对湿度数据，这些数据与COVID-19发病率相对应。进行了相关性检验和回归分析，以检验这两个数据系列之间的关联。此外，我们根据天气数据分析了COVID-19的分布情况，以估计支持COVID-19发病率的天气数据的有效范围。我们的结果表明，天气数据通常与COVID-19发病率相关。日平均气温（T-ave）和相对湿度（RH）分别与COVID-19数据呈显著正相关和负相关。然而，相关系数较弱，在滞后5天时相关性最强，即T-ave（RH）的相关系数为0.37（-0.41）。回归分析一致证实了这种关系。分布分析表明，印度尼西亚大多数COVID-19病例发生在日气温范围为25-31℃、相对湿度为74-92%的情况下。我们的研究结果表明，印度尼西亚的COVID-19发病率与天气条件的关联较弱。因此，非气象因素似乎发挥着更突出的作用，在预防COVID-19传播方面应给予更多考虑。
在线版本包含可在10.1007/s42398-021-00202-9获取的补充材料。
