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中国武汉 COVID-19 发病率与社会经济因素的关联分布:对城市发展的启示。

Distribution of COVID-19 Morbidity Rate in Association with Social and Economic Factors in Wuhan, China: Implications for Urban Development.

机构信息

School of Public Administration, Zhejiang University of Finance and Economics, Hangzhou 310018, China.

Department of City and Regional Planning, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, NC 27514, USA.

出版信息

Int J Environ Res Public Health. 2020 May 14;17(10):3417. doi: 10.3390/ijerph17103417.

Abstract

Social and economic factors relate to the prevention and control of infectious diseases. The purpose of this paper was to assess the distribution of COVID-19 morbidity rate in association with social and economic factors and discuss the implications for urban development that help to control infectious diseases. This study was a cross-sectional study. In this study, social and economic factors were classified into three dimensions: built environment, economic activities, and public service status. The method applied in this study was the spatial regression analysis. In the 13 districts in Wuhan, the spatial regression analysis was applied. The results showed that: 1) increasing population density, construction land area proportion, value-added of tertiary industry per unit of land area, total retail sales of consumer goods per unit of land area, public green space density, aged population density were associated with an increased COVID-19 morbidity rate due to the positive characteristics of estimated coefficients of these variables. 2) increasing average building scale, GDP per unit of land area, and hospital density were associated with a decreased COVID-19 morbidity rate due to the negative characteristics of estimated coefficients of these variables. It was concluded that it is possible to control infectious diseases, such as COVID-19, by adjusting social and economic factors. We should guide urban development to improve human health.

摘要

社会经济因素与传染病的防控息息相关。本文旨在评估与社会经济因素相关的 COVID-19 发病率分布,并讨论有助于控制传染病的城市发展启示。本研究为一项横断面研究。在本研究中,社会经济因素被分为三个维度:建成环境、经济活动和公共服务状况。本研究应用的方法是空间回归分析。在武汉市的 13 个行政区中应用了空间回归分析。结果表明:1)人口密度、建设用地比例、单位土地面积第三产业增加值、单位土地面积社会消费品零售总额、公共绿地密度、老年人口密度的增加与 COVID-19 发病率的增加有关,这是因为这些变量的估计系数具有正向特征。2)平均建筑规模、单位土地面积 GDP 和医院密度的增加与 COVID-19 发病率的降低有关,这是因为这些变量的估计系数具有负向特征。结论是,可以通过调整社会经济因素来控制 COVID-19 等传染病。我们应该引导城市发展以改善人类健康。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/58e3/7277377/b453520fb409/ijerph-17-03417-g001.jpg

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