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中国新型冠状病毒病新增确诊病例数与迁移规模指数的相关性。

Correlation between the migration scale index and the number of new confirmed coronavirus disease 2019 cases in China.

机构信息

Department of Infectious Disease, Shenyang Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Shenyang110031, Liaoning Province, China.

Department of Infectious Disease, Shenyang Sixth People's Hospital, Shenyang110006, Liaoning Province, China.

出版信息

Epidemiol Infect. 2020 May 19;148:e99. doi: 10.1017/S0950268820001119.


DOI:10.1017/S0950268820001119
PMID:32423504
原文链接:https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC7251287/
Abstract

In late December 2019, patients of atypical pneumonia due to an unidentified microbial agent were reported in Wuhan, Hubei Province, China. Subsequently, a novel coronavirus was identified as the causative pathogen which was named SARS-CoV-2. As of 12 February 2020, more than 44 000 cases of SARS-CoV-2 infection have been confirmed in China and continue to expand. Provinces, municipalities and autonomous regions of China have launched first-level response to major public health emergencies one after another from 23 January 2020, which means restricting movement of people among provinces, municipalities and autonomous regions. The aim of this study was to explore the correlation between the migration scale index and the number of confirmed coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) cases and to depict the effect of restricting population movement. In this study, Excel 2010 was used to demonstrate the temporal distribution at the day level and SPSS 23.0 was used to analyse the correlation between the migration scale index and the number of confirmed COVID-19 cases. We found that since 23 January 2020, Wuhan migration scale index has dropped significantly and since 26 January 2020, Hubei province migration scale index has dropped significantly. New confirmed COVID-19 cases per day in China except for Wuhan gradually increased since 24 January 2020, and showed a downward trend from 6 February 2020. New confirmed COVID-19 cases per day in China except for Hubei province gradually increased since 24 January 2020, and maintained at a high level from 24 January 2020 to 4 February 2020, then showed a downward trend. Wuhan migration scale index from 9 January to 22 January, 10 January to 23 January and 11 January to 24 January was correlated with the number of new confirmed COVID-19 cases per day in China except for Wuhan from 22 January to 4 February. Hubei province migration scale index from 10 January to 23 January and 11 January to 24 January was correlated with the number of new confirmed COVID-19 cases per day in China except for Hubei province from 22 January to 4 February. Our findings suggested that people who left Wuhan from 9 January to 22 January, and those who left Hubei province from 10 January to 24 January, led to the outbreak in the rest of China. The 'Wuhan lockdown' and the launching of the first-level response to this major public health emergency may have had a good effect on controlling the COVID-19 epidemic. Although new COVID-19 cases continued to be confirmed in China outside Wuhan and Hubei provinces, in our opinion, these are second-generation cases.

摘要

2019 年 12 月下旬,中国湖北省武汉市报告了不明原因的肺炎患者。随后,一种新型冠状病毒被确定为致病病原体,被命名为 SARS-CoV-2。截至 2020 年 2 月 12 日,中国已确诊超过 44000 例 SARS-CoV-2 感染病例,并持续扩大。自 2020 年 1 月 23 日起,中国各省、自治区、直辖市相继启动了重大突发公共卫生事件一级响应,这意味着限制了省际、省际和直辖市之间的人员流动。本研究旨在探讨人口迁移规模指数与确诊的新型冠状病毒肺炎(COVID-19)病例数之间的相关性,并描述人口流动限制的效果。本研究采用 Excel 2010 演示了日水平的时间分布,采用 SPSS 23.0 分析了人口迁移规模指数与确诊 COVID-19 病例数之间的相关性。我们发现,自 2020 年 1 月 23 日以来,武汉的人口迁移规模指数显著下降,自 2020 年 1 月 26 日以来,湖北省的人口迁移规模指数也显著下降。自 2020 年 1 月 24 日以来,中国除武汉以外的地区每日新增确诊 COVID-19 病例逐渐增加,并于 2020 年 2 月 6 日呈下降趋势。自 2020 年 1 月 24 日以来,中国除湖北省以外的地区每日新增确诊 COVID-19 病例逐渐增加,并于 2020 年 1 月 24 日至 2 月 4 日保持在较高水平,随后呈下降趋势。2020 年 1 月 9 日至 22 日、1 月 10 日至 23 日和 1 月 11 日至 24 日期间,武汉的人口迁移规模指数与 2020 年 2 月 4 日之前中国除武汉以外地区每日新增确诊 COVID-19 病例数相关。2020 年 1 月 10 日至 23 日和 1 月 11 日至 24 日期间,湖北省的人口迁移规模指数与 2020 年 2 月 4 日之前中国除湖北省以外地区每日新增确诊 COVID-19 病例数相关。我们的研究结果表明,2020 年 1 月 9 日至 22 日期间离开武汉的人和 2020 年 1 月 10 日至 24 日期间离开湖北省的人导致了中国其他地区的疫情爆发。武汉的“封城”和此次重大公共卫生事件一级响应的启动,可能对控制 COVID-19 疫情起到了良好的效果。虽然中国武汉和湖北省以外的地区仍有新的 COVID-19 病例确诊,但在我们看来,这些都是第二代病例。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/d220/7251287/8be1f92be680/S0950268820001119_fig2.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/d220/7251287/194020eae18b/S0950268820001119_fig1.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/d220/7251287/8be1f92be680/S0950268820001119_fig2.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/d220/7251287/194020eae18b/S0950268820001119_fig1.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/d220/7251287/8be1f92be680/S0950268820001119_fig2.jpg

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本文引用的文献

[1]
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[2]
Clinical Characteristics of 138 Hospitalized Patients With 2019 Novel Coronavirus-Infected Pneumonia in Wuhan, China.

JAMA. 2020-3-17

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