School of Public Health, Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, Shanghai, 200025, China.
Department of Cancer Prevention, Shanghai Cancer Center, Fudan University, Shanghai, China.
Front Med. 2020 Apr;14(2):199-209. doi: 10.1007/s11684-020-0768-7. Epub 2020 Mar 31.
The outbreak of the coronavirus disease 2019 was first reported in Wuhan in December 2019 and gradually spread to other areas in China. After implementation of prevention and control measures, the estimation of the epidemic trend is needed. A phase- and region-adjusted SEIR model was applied for modeling and predicting the number of cases in Wuhan, Hubei Province and regions outside Hubei Province in China. The estimated number of infections could reach its peak in late February 2020 in Wuhan and Hubei Province, which is 55 303-84 520 and 83 944-129 312, respectively, while the epidemic peaks in regions outside Hubei Province in China could appear on February 13, 2020 with the estimated 13 035-19 108 cases. According to the estimation, the outbreak would abate in March and April all over China. Current estimation provided evidence for planned work resumption under stringent prevention and control in China to further support the fight against the epidemic. Nevertheless, there is still possibility of the second outbreak brought by the work resumption and population migration, especially from Hubei Province and high intensity cities outside Hubei Province. Strict prevention and control measures still need to be considered in the regions with high intensity of epidemic and densely-populated cities.
2019 年冠状病毒病疫情首先于 2019 年 12 月在中国武汉报告，并逐渐蔓延至中国其他地区。在采取防控措施后，需要对疫情趋势进行估计。本研究应用阶段和地区调整的 SEIR 模型对武汉市、湖北省和中国湖北省以外地区的病例数进行建模和预测。预计武汉市和湖北省的感染人数将于 2020 年 2 月下旬达到高峰，分别为 55303-84520 和 83944-129312，而中国湖北省以外地区的疫情高峰可能出现在 2020 年 2 月 13 日，估计病例数为 13035-19108。根据估计，全国疫情将于 3 月和 4 月得到缓解。本研究的当前估计为中国在严格防控下计划复工提供了依据，以进一步支持抗击疫情。然而，随着复工和人口迁移，尤其是从湖北省和湖北省以外高强度城市的迁移，仍有可能出现第二次疫情爆发。疫情强度高和人口密集的城市仍需考虑严格的防控措施。
