Department of Behavioural Science and Health, University College London, London, United Kingdom.
Department of Clinical, Educational and Health Psychology, University College London, London, United Kingdom.
JMIR Mhealth Uhealth. 2020 Jun 11;8(6):e19494. doi: 10.2196/19494.
BACKGROUND: The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) outbreak may motivate smokers to attempt to stop in greater numbers. However, given the temporary closure of UK stop smoking services and vape shops, smokers attempting to quit may instead seek out mobile health support, such as smartphone apps. OBJECTIVE: We examined, using an interrupted time series approach, whether the SARS-CoV-2 outbreak has been associated with a step change or increasing trend in UK downloads of an otherwise popular smoking cessation app, Smoke Free. METHODS: Data were from daily and nondaily adult smokers in the United Kingdom who had downloaded the Smoke Free app between January 1, 2020, and March 31, 2020 (primary analysis), and January 1, 2019, and March 31, 2020 (secondary analysis). The outcome variable was the number of downloads aggregated at the 12-hourly (primary analysis) or daily level (secondary analysis). The explanatory variable was the start of the SARS-CoV-2 outbreak, operationalized as March 1, 2020 (primary analysis), and January 15, 2020 (secondary analysis). Generalized additive mixed models adjusted for relevant covariates were fitted. RESULTS: Data were collected on 45,105 (primary analysis) and 119,881 (secondary analysis) users. In both analyses, there was no evidence for a step change or increasing trend in downloads attributable to the start of the SARS-CoV-2 outbreak. Calculation of Bayes factors (BFs) indicated that the data for the primary analysis favored the null hypothesis compared with large associations (for level, BF=0.25; for slope, BF=0.26) but were insensitive to the detection of small associations (for level, BF=0.78; for slope, BF=1.35). CONCLUSIONS: In the United Kingdom, between January 1, 2020, and March 31, 2020, and between January 1, 2019, and March 31, 2020, there was no evidence that the SARS-CoV-2 outbreak has been associated with a large step change or increasing trend in downloads of a popular smoking cessation app. Findings on the association of the SARS-CoV-2 outbreak with a small step change or increasing trend were inconclusive.
背景：严重急性呼吸综合征冠状病毒 2（SARS-CoV-2）的爆发可能促使更多的吸烟者试图戒烟。然而，鉴于英国戒烟服务和电子烟商店暂时关闭，试图戒烟的吸烟者可能会转而寻求移动健康支持，例如智能手机应用程序。
目的：我们使用中断时间序列分析方法，研究 SARS-CoV-2 爆发是否与英国一款流行的戒烟应用程序 Smoke Free 的下载量发生了阶跃变化或呈上升趋势有关。
方法：数据来自于 2020 年 1 月 1 日至 3 月 31 日（主要分析）和 2019 年 1 月 1 日至 3 月 31 日期间下载过 Smoke Free 应用程序的英国成年吸烟者（每日吸烟者和非每日吸烟者）。因变量是按 12 小时（主要分析）或每日（次要分析）汇总的下载量。解释变量是 SARS-CoV-2 爆发的开始，具体操作为 2020 年 3 月 1 日（主要分析）和 2020 年 1 月 15 日（次要分析）。对相关协变量进行了广义加性混合模型拟合。
结果：主要分析中收集了 45105 名用户的数据，次要分析中收集了 119881 名用户的数据。在这两项分析中，都没有证据表明下载量的变化归因于 SARS-CoV-2 爆发的开始。贝叶斯因子（BF）的计算表明，与大关联相比（水平，BF=0.25；斜率，BF=0.26），主要分析的数据更倾向于零假设，但对小关联的检测不敏感（水平，BF=0.78；斜率，BF=1.35）。
结论：在英国，2020 年 1 月 1 日至 3 月 31 日期间和 2019 年 1 月 1 日至 3 月 31 日期间，没有证据表明 SARS-CoV-2 爆发与一款流行的戒烟应用程序下载量的大幅阶跃变化或上升趋势有关。关于 SARS-CoV-2 爆发与小阶跃变化或上升趋势关联的研究结果尚无定论。
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