Guerrero-Nancuante Camilo, Manríquez P Ronald
Escuela de Enfermería, Universidad de Valparaíso, Valparaíso, Chile.
Laboratorio de investigación Lab[e]saM, Departamento de Matemática y Estadística, Universidad de Playa Ancha, Valparaíso, Chile.
Medwave. 2020 May 15;20(4):e7898. doi: 10.5867/medwave.2020.04.7898.
The COVID-19 pandemic declared by the World Health Organization (WHO) has generated a wide-ranging debate regarding epidemiological forecasts and the global implications. With the data obtained from the Chilean Ministry of Health (MINSAL), a prospective study was carried out using the generalized SEIR model to estimate the course of COVID-19 in Chile. Three scenarios were estimated: Scenario 1 with official MINSAL data; scenario 2 with official MINSAL data and recovery criteria proposed by international organizations of health; and scenario 3 with official MINSAL data, recovery criteria proposed by international organizations of health, and without considering deaths in the total recovered. There are considerable differences between scenario 1 compared to 2 and 3 in the number of deaths, active patients, and duration of the disease. Scenario 3, considered the most adverse, estimates a total of 11,000 infected people, 1,151 deaths, and that the peak of the disease will occur in the first days of May. We concluded that the concept of recovered may be decisive for the epidemiological forecasts of COVID-19 in Chile.
世界卫生组织（WHO）宣布的新冠疫情引发了关于流行病学预测及其全球影响的广泛辩论。利用从智利卫生部（MINSAL）获得的数据，开展了一项前瞻性研究，采用广义SEIR模型来估计智利新冠疫情的发展过程。估计了三种情景：情景1采用MINSAL官方数据；情景2采用MINSAL官方数据以及国际卫生组织提出的康复标准；情景3采用MINSAL官方数据、国际卫生组织提出的康复标准，且不将死亡病例计入总康复人数。情景1与情景2和3相比，在死亡人数、活跃患者数和疾病持续时间方面存在相当大的差异。情景3被认为是最不利的，估计共有11000人感染，1151人死亡，且疫情高峰将在5月的头几天出现。我们得出结论，康复的概念可能对智利新冠疫情的流行病学预测具有决定性作用。
