Open University Netherlands, De Liesbosch 12d, 3439LC Nieuwegein, the Netherlands.
Sci Total Environ. 2020 Jul 20;727:138543. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.138543. Epub 2020 Apr 17.
There is uncertainty if current models for the Covid-19 pandemic should already take into account seasonality. That is because current environmental factors do not provide a powerful explanation of such seasonality, especially given climate differences between countries with moderate climates. It is hypothesized that one major factor is overlooked: pollen count. Pollen are documented to invoke strong immune responses and might create an environmental factor that makes it more difficult for flu-like viruses to survive outside a host. This Dutch study confirms that there is a (highly) significant inverse correlation between pollen count and weekly changes in medical flu consults, and that there is a highly significant inverse correlation between hay fever incidence, as measured by prescribed medication revenues, and weekly flu consults. This supports the idea that pollen are a direct or indirect factor in the seasonality of flu-like epidemics. If seasonality will be observed during the covid-19 spread as well, it is not unlikely that pollen play a role.
目前的新冠大流行模型是否应该已经考虑到季节性，这一点还不确定。这是因为当前的环境因素并不能很好地解释这种季节性，尤其是考虑到气候温和的国家之间的气候差异。有一个假设认为，一个主要因素被忽视了：花粉计数。有记录表明花粉会引发强烈的免疫反应，可能会产生一种环境因素，使类似流感的病毒在宿主之外更难存活。这项荷兰研究证实，花粉计数与每周医疗流感咨询量的变化之间存在（高度）显著的负相关，花粉计数与通过处方药物收入衡量的花粉热发病率与每周流感咨询量之间存在高度显著的负相关。这支持了花粉是流感样流行季节性的直接或间接因素的观点。如果在新冠病毒传播期间也观察到季节性，那么花粉很可能发挥了作用。
