Quaid-i-Azam University, Islamabad, Pakistan.
University of Derby, Derby, UK.
Environ Sci Pollut Res Int. 2020 Sep;27(25):31892-31904. doi: 10.1007/s11356-020-09258-2. Epub 2020 Jun 6.
This study inspects the empirical association between inflation instability, GDP growth volatility, and the environmental quality in Pakistan, covering the period 1975-2018 by using an asymmetric autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) methodological approach. The asymmetric ARDL results document that positive and negative shocks of inflation instability have different effects on environmental quality. Negative shocks of inflation instability have a positive influence on carbon dioxide emissions (CO) and nitrous oxide emissions (NO), while positive shocks of inflation instability have insignificant effects in the long run. Asymmetric findings also suggest that positive and negative fluctuations in GDP growth volatility affect CO and NO emissions differently, while they have insignificant results on methane emissions (CH) in the long run. Additionally, in the short run, positive and negative shocks of inflation instability and GDP growth volatility behave differently in terms of their impact on pollution emissions. Based on these findings, the study opens up innovative intuitions for policymakers to support a robust role of economic stability in attaining targets relevant to pollution reduction.
本研究使用非对称自回归分布滞后 (ARDL) 方法，考察了 1975-2018 年期间巴基斯坦通货膨胀不稳定性、GDP 增长波动与环境质量之间的经验关联。非对称 ARDL 结果表明，通货膨胀不稳定性的正向和负向冲击对环境质量有不同的影响。通货膨胀不稳定性的负向冲击对二氧化碳（CO）和一氧化二氮（NO）排放有积极影响，而通货膨胀不稳定性的正向冲击在长期内没有显著影响。不对称的发现还表明，GDP 增长波动的正向和负向波动对 CO 和 NO 排放的影响不同，而在长期内对甲烷（CH）排放没有显著影响。此外，在短期内，通货膨胀不稳定性和 GDP 增长波动的正向和负向冲击对污染排放的影响表现不同。基于这些发现，本研究为政策制定者提供了创新的见解，以支持经济稳定在实现与减排相关的目标方面发挥强有力的作用。
