Bonasera Aldo, Bonasera G, Zhang Suyalatu
Cyclotron Institute, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX 77843 USA.
LNS-INFN, v. Santa Sofia, 64-95123 Catania, Italy.
Eur Phys J Plus. 2020;135(6):453. doi: 10.1140/epjp/s13360-020-00494-6. Epub 2020 Jun 1.
A model based on population growth, chaotic maps, and turbulent flows is applied to the spread of Coronavirus for each Italian region in order to obtain useful information and help to contrast it. We divide the regions into different risk categories and discuss anomalies. The worst cases are confined between the Appenine and the Alps mountain ranges but the situation seem to improve closer to the sea. The Veneto region gave the most efficient response so far and some of their resources could be diverted to other regions, in particular, more tests to the Lombardia, Liguria, Piemonte, Marche and V. Aosta regions, which seem to be worst affected. We noticed worrying anomalies in the Lazio, Campania and Sicilia regions to be monitored. We stress that the number of fatalities we predicted on March 12 has been confirmed daily by the bulletins. This suggests a change of strategy in order to reduce such number maybe moving the weaker population (and negative to the virus test) to beach resorts, which should be empty presently. The ratio deceased/positives on April 4, 2020 is 5.4% worldwide, 12.3% in Italy, 1.4% in Germany, 2.7% in the USA, 10.3% in the UK and 4.1% in China. These large fluctuations should be investigated starting from the Italian regions, which show similar large fluctuations.
一个基于人口增长、混沌映射和湍流的模型被应用于意大利各地区的新冠病毒传播情况，以便获取有用信息并助力应对疫情。我们将各地区划分为不同风险类别并讨论异常情况。最严重的情况集中在亚平宁山脉和阿尔卑斯山脉之间，但靠近海边的情况似乎有所改善。威尼托地区迄今为止做出了最有效的应对，其部分资源可调配至其他地区，特别是对伦巴第、利古里亚、皮埃蒙特、马尔凯和瓦莱达奥斯塔地区进行更多检测，这些地区似乎受影响最严重。我们注意到拉齐奥、坎帕尼亚和西西里地区存在令人担忧的异常情况，需加以监测。我们强调，我们在3月12日预测的死亡人数每日都被公告所证实。这表明或许应改变策略以减少该数字，比如将弱势群体（且病毒检测呈阴性）转移至海滨度假胜地，目前这些地方应该是空的。2020年4月4日全球的死亡/阳性比例为5.4%，意大利为12.3%，德国为1.4%，美国为2.7%，英国为10.3%，中国为4.1%。这些大幅波动应从意大利各地区入手进行调查，因为它们也呈现出类似的大幅波动。
