School of Civil Engineering, College of Engineering, University of Tehran, Iran.
School of Civil Engineering, College of Engineering, University of Tehran, Iran.
J Safety Res. 2020 Jun;73:17-24. doi: 10.1016/j.jsr.2020.02.008. Epub 2020 Feb 28.
Motorcyclists are exposed to more fatalities and severe injuries per mile of travel as compared to other vehicle drivers. Moreover, crashes that take place at intersections are more likely to result in serious or fatal injuries as compared to those that occur at non-intersections. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to evaluate the contributing factors to motorcycle crash severity at intersections.
A data set of 7,714 motorcycle crashes at intersections in the State of Victoria, Australia was analyzed over the period of 2006-2018. The multinomial logit model was used for evaluating the motorcycle crashes. The severity of motorcycle crashes was divided into three categories: minor injury, serious injury and fatal injury. The risk factors consisted of four major categories: motorcyclist characteristics, environmental characteristics, intersection characteristics and crash characteristics.
The results of the model demonstrated that certain factors increased the probability of fatal injuries. These factors were: motorcyclists aged over 59 years, weekend crashes, midnight/early morning crashes, morning rush hours crashes, multiple vehicles involved in the crash, t-intersections, crashes in towns, crashes in rural areas, stop or give-way intersections, roundabouts, and uncontrolled intersections. By contrast, factors such as female motorcyclists, snowy or stormy or foggy weather, rainy weather, evening rush hours crashes, and unpaved roads reduced the probability of fatal injuries. Practical Applications: The results from our study demonstrated that certain treatment measures for t-intersections may reduce the probability of fatal injuries. An effective way for improving the safety of stop or give-way intersections and uncontrolled intersections could be to convert them to all-way stop controls. Further, it is recommended to educate the older riders that with ageing, there are physiological changes that occur within the body which can increase both crash likelihood and injury severity.
与其他车辆驾驶员相比，摩托车手在每英里行驶中面临更高的死亡率和更严重的伤害。此外，与非交叉路口相比，发生在交叉路口的事故更有可能导致严重或致命伤害。因此，本研究的目的是评估导致交叉路口摩托车事故严重程度的因素。
分析了 2006 年至 2018 年澳大利亚维多利亚州 7714 起交叉口摩托车事故的数据。使用多项逻辑回归模型评估摩托车事故。将摩托车事故的严重程度分为三类：轻微伤、重伤和致命伤。危险因素包括四个主要类别：摩托车手特征、环境特征、交叉路口特征和事故特征。
模型结果表明，某些因素增加了致命伤害的可能性。这些因素包括：59 岁以上的摩托车手、周末事故、午夜/清晨事故、早高峰事故、多辆车卷入事故、T 型交叉口、城镇事故、农村地区事故、停车让行交叉口、环岛和无控制交叉口。相比之下，女性摩托车手、下雪或暴风雨或有雾的天气、雨天、晚高峰事故和未铺砌的道路等因素降低了致命伤害的可能性。
我们的研究结果表明，某些 T 型交叉口的治疗措施可能会降低致命伤害的可能性。改善停车让行交叉口和无控制交叉口安全性的有效方法是将其转换为全向停车控制。此外，建议对老年骑手进行教育，随着年龄的增长，身体会发生生理变化，这会增加事故发生的可能性和伤害的严重程度。
