Gallipoli Medical Research Institute, University of Queensland, Brisbane, Australia.
Research School of Population Health, Australian National University, Canberra, Australia.
Sci Total Environ. 2020 Oct 20;740:139796. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.139796. Epub 2020 Jun 13.
International reports indicate a rising incidence of nontuberculous mycobacterial (NTM) disease. Many infectious diseases have seasonal variation in incidence, and major weather events and climate change have been implicated. The aim of this study was to explore the relationship between climate variables and NTM incident cases in Queensland, Australia.
NTM data were obtained from the Queensland notifiable conditions database for the period 2001-2016. Rainfall and temperature data were obtained from the Australian Bureau of Meteorology. Poisson regression models were used to assess notification rates (incidence cases per 100,000 population) over time and to estimate incidence rate ratios (IRR). Cross correlation coefficients were used to examine the relationship between rainfall and temperature data and NTM incidence over time in each Hospital and Health Service (HHS).
12,219 NTM cases were reported. The most common species was M. intracellulare (39.1%), followed by M. avium (9.8%), M abscessus (8.5%), M. fortuitum (8.3%), M. chelonae (3.3%), and M. kansasii (2.4%). The estimated incidence rate increased from 11.10 (95% CI 8.10-15.22) in 2001 to 25.88 (95%CI 21.78-30.73) per 100,000 in 2016. The estimated IRR increased for all common species, except M. kansasii. Although increased IRRs were observed for most NTM species, geospatial heterogeneity was observed. The effect of rainfall and temperature on NTM incidence differed between species and geographic regions.
The incidence of NTM infections increased between 2001 and 2016. Variations in temperature and rainfall may play a role in environmental exposure to some species of NTM. Spatial variation in IRR suggests that there may also be other environmental factors that influence transmission.
本研究旨在探索气候变量与澳大利亚昆士兰州非结核分枝杆菌（NTM）感染病例之间的关系。
从 2001 年至 2016 年，从昆士兰州传染病数据库中获取 NTM 数据。从澳大利亚气象局获取降雨量和温度数据。使用泊松回归模型评估随时间推移的通知率（每 10 万人中的发病率病例），并估计发病率比（IRR）。交叉相关系数用于检查每个医院和卫生服务（HHS）中降雨量和温度数据与 NTM 发病率之间的关系。
报告了 12219 例 NTM 病例。最常见的物种是 M. intracellulare（39.1%），其次是 M. avium（9.8%），M. abscessus（8.5%），M. fortuitum（8.3%），M. chelonae（3.3%）和 M. kansasii（2.4%）。估计的发病率从 2001 年的 11.10（95%CI 8.10-15.22）增加到 2016 年的 25.88（95%CI 21.78-30.73）/100,000。除了 M. kansasii 之外，所有常见物种的估计 IRR 均增加。尽管大多数 NTM 物种的 IRR 增加，但观察到地理空间异质性。降雨量和温度对 NTM 发病率的影响因物种和地理区域而异。
2001 年至 2016 年间，NTM 感染的发病率增加。温度和降雨量的变化可能在某些 NTM 物种的环境暴露中起作用。IRR 的空间变化表明，可能还有其他环境因素影响传播。
