Emerg Infect Dis. 2020 Jul;26(7):1489-1496. doi: 10.3201/eid2607.190539.
Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is the most common cause of pediatric acute lower respiratory tract infection worldwide. Detailed data on the health and economic burden of RSV disease are lacking from tropical settings with year-round RSV transmission. We developed a statistical and economic model to estimate the annual incidence and healthcare cost of medically attended RSV disease among young children in Singapore, using Monte Carlo simulation to account for uncertainty in model parameters. RSV accounted for 708 hospitalizations in children <6 months of age (33.5/1,000 child-years) and 1,096 in children 6-29 months of age (13.2/1,000 child-years). The cost of hospitalization was SGD 5.7 million (US $4.3 million) at 2014 prices; patients bore 60% of the cost. RSV-associated disease burden in tropical settings in Asia is high and comparable to other settings. Further work incorporating efficacy data from ongoing vaccine trials will help to determine the potential cost-effectiveness of different vaccination strategies.
呼吸道合胞病毒（RSV）是全球范围内导致儿童急性下呼吸道感染的最常见原因。在全年都有 RSV 传播的热带地区，缺乏关于 RSV 疾病的健康和经济负担的详细数据。我们使用蒙特卡罗模拟来考虑模型参数的不确定性，开发了一个统计和经济模型，以估计新加坡幼儿因医疗干预的 RSV 疾病的年发病率和医疗保健成本。RSV 导致 6 个月以下儿童住院 708 例（33.5/1000 儿童年），6-29 个月儿童住院 1096 例（13.2/1000 儿童年）。按 2014 年价格计算，住院费用为 570 万新元（430 万美元）；患者承担 60%的费用。亚洲热带地区 RSV 相关疾病负担较高，与其他地区相当。进一步的工作将纳入正在进行的疫苗试验的疗效数据，以帮助确定不同疫苗接种策略的潜在成本效益。
