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新冠疫情是否会随着北半球夏季的来临而减缓？一个流行病学假设。

Will the COVID-19 pandemic slow down in the Northern hemisphere by the onset of summer? An epidemiological hypothesis.

机构信息

Practice for General Internal Medicine, Innsbruck, Austria.

Department of Internal Medicine, District Hospital Hochzirl-Natters, Innsbruck, Austria.

出版信息

Infection. 2020 Aug;48(4):627-629. doi: 10.1007/s15010-020-01460-1. Epub 2020 Jun 23.

DOI:10.1007/s15010-020-01460-1
PMID:32578052
原文链接:https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC7309422/
Abstract

The COVID-19 pandemic has affected most countries of the world. As corona viruses are highly prevalent in the cold season, the question remains whether or not the pandemic will improve with increasing temperatures in the Northern hemisphere. We use data from a primary care registry of almost 15,000 patients over 20 years to retrieve information on viral respiratory infection outbreaks. Our analysis suggests that the severity of the pandemic will be softened by the seasonal change to summer.

摘要

COVID-19 大流行已经影响到世界上大多数国家。由于冠状病毒在寒冷季节非常普遍，因此仍然存在疑问，即随着北半球温度升高，大流行是否会得到改善。我们使用了一个初级保健注册处近 15000 名患者超过 20 年的数据来检索有关病毒性呼吸道感染爆发的信息。我们的分析表明，大流行的严重程度将随着季节向夏季的变化而减轻。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/8b0a/7395036/33c924fb15aa/15010_2020_1460_Fig2_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/8b0a/7395036/652faa4cfca6/15010_2020_1460_Fig1_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/8b0a/7395036/33c924fb15aa/15010_2020_1460_Fig2_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/8b0a/7395036/652faa4cfca6/15010_2020_1460_Fig1_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/8b0a/7395036/33c924fb15aa/15010_2020_1460_Fig2_HTML.jpg

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