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开发和验证一种机器人多因素跌倒风险预测模型:一项针对社区居住的老年人群体的为期一年的前瞻性研究。

Development and validation of a robotic multifactorial fall-risk predictive model: A one-year prospective study in community-dwelling older adults.

机构信息

Department of Geriatric Care, Orthogeriatrics and Rehabilitation, EO Galliera Hospital, Genova, Italy.

Movendo Technology Srl, Genova, Italy.

出版信息

PLoS One. 2020 Jun 25;15(6):e0234904. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0234904. eCollection 2020.


DOI:10.1371/journal.pone.0234904
PMID:32584912
原文链接:https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC7316263/
Abstract

BACKGROUND: Falls in the elderly are a major public health concern because of their high incidence, the involvement of many risk factors, the considerable post-fall morbidity and mortality, and the health-related and social costs. Given that many falls are preventable, the early identification of older adults at risk of falling is crucial in order to develop tailored interventions to prevent such falls. To date, however, the fall-risk assessment tools currently used in the elderly have not shown sufficiently high predictive validity to distinguish between subjects at high and low fall risk. Consequently, predicting the risk of falling remains an unsolved issue in geriatric medicine. This one-year prospective study aims to develop and validate, by means of a cross-validation method, a multifactorial fall-risk model based on clinical and robotic parameters in older adults. METHODS: Community-dwelling subjects aged ≥ 65 years were enrolled. At the baseline, all subjects were evaluated for history of falling and number of drugs taken daily, and their gait and balance were evaluated by means of the Timed "Up & Go" test (TUG), Gait Speed (GS), Short Physical Performance Battery (SPPB) and Performance-Oriented Mobility Assessment (POMA). They also underwent robotic assessment by means of the hunova robotic device to evaluate the various components of balance. All subjects were followed up for one-year and the number of falls was recorded. The models that best predicted falls-on the basis of: i) only clinical parameters; ii) only robotic parameters; iii) clinical plus robotic parameters-were identified by means of a cross-validation method. RESULTS: Of the 100 subjects initially enrolled, 96 (62 females, mean age 77.17±.49 years) completed the follow-up and were included. Within one year, 32 participants (33%) experienced at least one fall ("fallers"), while 64 (67%) did not ("non-fallers"). The best classifier model to emerge from cross-validated fall-risk estimation included eight clinical variables (age, sex, history of falling in the previous 12 months, TUG, Tinetti, SPPB, Low GS, number of drugs) and 20 robotic parameters, and displayed an area under the receiver operator characteristic (ROC) curve of 0.81 (95% CI: 0.72-0.90). Notably, the model that included only three of these clinical variables (age, history of falls and low GS) plus the robotic parameters showed similar accuracy (ROC AUC 0.80, 95% CI: 0.71-0.89). In comparison with the best classifier model that comprised only clinical parameters (ROC AUC: 0.67; 95% CI: 0.55-0.79), both models performed better in predicting fall risk, with an estimated Net Reclassification Improvement (NRI) of 0.30 and 0.31 (p = 0.02), respectively, and an estimated Integrated Discrimination Improvement (IDI) of 0.32 and 0.27 (p<0.001), respectively. The best model that comprised only robotic parameters (the 20 parameters identified in the final model) achieved a better performance than the clinical parameters alone, but worse than the combination of both clinical and robotic variables (ROC AUC: 0.73, 95% CI 0.63-0.83). CONCLUSION: A multifactorial fall-risk assessment that includes clinical and hunova robotic variables significantly improves the accuracy of predicting the risk of falling in community-dwelling older people. Our data suggest that combining clinical and robotic assessments can more accurately identify older people at high risk of falls, thereby enabling personalized fall-prevention interventions to be undertaken.

摘要

背景:老年人跌倒问题是一个重大的公共卫生关注点,因为其发生率高,涉及许多风险因素,跌倒后发病率和死亡率高,以及与健康相关的和社会成本高。鉴于许多跌倒可以预防,早期识别有跌倒风险的老年人对于制定针对特定个体的预防措施至关重要。然而,到目前为止,老年人目前使用的跌倒风险评估工具在区分高风险和低风险人群方面并未显示出足够高的预测准确性。因此,预测跌倒风险仍然是老年医学中的一个未解决的问题。本为期一年的前瞻性研究旨在通过交叉验证方法,基于临床和机器人参数,为老年人开发和验证一种多因素跌倒风险模型。

方法:招募了年龄≥ 65 岁的社区居住的受试者。在基线时,所有受试者均评估了跌倒史和每日服用的药物数量,并通过计时“站起来和走”测试(TUG)、步态速度(GS)、简易体能测试(SPPB)和活动能力测试(POMA)评估了他们的步态和平衡能力。他们还接受了 hunova 机器人设备的机器人评估,以评估平衡的各个组成部分。所有受试者均随访一年,并记录跌倒次数。通过交叉验证方法,确定了基于以下方面最佳预测跌倒的模型:i)仅临床参数;ii)仅机器人参数;iii)临床加机器人参数。

结果:最初纳入的 100 名受试者中,96 名(62 名女性,平均年龄 77.17±.49 岁)完成了随访并被纳入。在一年内,32 名参与者(33%)至少经历了一次跌倒(“跌倒者”),而 64 名(67%)没有(“非跌倒者”)。从交叉验证跌倒风险估计中得出的最佳分类器模型包括 8 个临床变量(年龄、性别、过去 12 个月内的跌倒史、TUG、Tinetti、SPPB、低 GS、药物数量)和 20 个机器人参数,并且显示出接收器工作特征曲线(ROC)的面积为 0.81(95%置信区间:0.72-0.90)。值得注意的是,仅包括其中三个临床变量(年龄、跌倒史和低 GS)加上机器人参数的模型显示出相似的准确性(ROC AUC 0.80,95%置信区间:0.71-0.89)。与仅包含临床参数的最佳分类器模型(ROC AUC:0.67;95%置信区间:0.55-0.79)相比,这两个模型在预测跌倒风险方面表现更好,估计的净重新分类改善(NRI)分别为 0.30 和 0.31(p = 0.02),估计的综合鉴别改善(IDI)分别为 0.32 和 0.27(p<0.001)。仅包含机器人参数的最佳模型(最终模型中确定的 20 个参数)的表现优于仅包含临床参数的模型,但逊于仅包含临床和机器人变量的组合模型(ROC AUC:0.73,95%CI 0.63-0.83)。

结论:包括临床和 hunova 机器人变量的多因素跌倒风险评估显著提高了预测社区居住老年人跌倒风险的准确性。我们的数据表明,结合临床和机器人评估可以更准确地识别高跌倒风险的老年人,从而能够进行个性化的跌倒预防干预。

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