Ramírez-Bautista Arturo, Thorne James H, Schwartz Mark W, Williams John N
Centro Interdisciplinario de Investigación para el Desarrollo Integral Regional Unidad Oaxaca (CIIDIR-OAX) Instituto Politécnico Nacional Oaxaca Mexico.
Department of Environmental Science & Policy University of California Davis CA USA.
Ecol Evol. 2020 May 18;10(12):5864-5876. doi: 10.1002/ece3.6323. eCollection 2020 Jun.
Incorporate species' trait information together with climate projections for associated habitat to assess the potential vulnerability of rodent taxa to climate change.
Oaxaca State, Mexico.
We used a trait-based approach together with climate exposure models to evaluate the vulnerability of rodent species to projected climate conditions in the study region. Vulnerability was estimated based on three factors: (a) Level of climatic exposure that species are projected to experience across their current statewide range; (b) inherent species-specific sensitivity to stochastic events; and (c) species' capacity to cope with climate change effects. We defined species as inherently sensitive if they had any of the following: restricted geographic distribution in Mexico; narrow altitudinal range; low dispersal ability; or long generation length.
Vulnerability varied depending on the climate change scenario applied. Under the MPI general circulation model and current emissions trends, by 2099, all species evaluated were projected to have some level of threat (vulnerable for at least one factor), with 4 out of 55 species vulnerable for all three factors, 29 for two factors, and 22 for one factor. Six out of ten rodent species endemic to Oaxaca were vulnerable for two or more factors. We found that species with narrow and restricted-range distributions combined with low adaptive capacity were projected to be particularly vulnerable.
By including species-specific trait information in climate exposure assessments, researchers can contextualize and enhance their understanding about how climate change is likely to affect individual taxa in an area of interest. As such, studies like this one provide more relevant threat assessment information than exposure analyses alone and serve as a starting point for considering how climatic changes interact with an array of other variables to affect native species across their range.
结合物种的特征信息以及相关栖息地的气候预测，评估啮齿类群对气候变化的潜在脆弱性。
墨西哥瓦哈卡州。
我们采用基于特征的方法以及气候暴露模型，来评估啮齿类物种对研究区域内预计气候条件的脆弱性。脆弱性基于三个因素进行估计：(a) 预计物种在其当前全州范围内所经历的气候暴露水平；(b) 物种对随机事件的固有特定敏感性；以及 (c) 物种应对气候变化影响的能力。如果物种具有以下任何一种情况，我们将其定义为固有敏感物种：在墨西哥的地理分布受限；海拔范围狭窄；扩散能力低；或世代周期长。
脆弱性因所应用的气候变化情景而异。在MPI大气环流模型和当前排放趋势下，到2099年，所有评估物种预计都将面临一定程度的威胁（至少一个因素使其易受影响），55个物种中有4个在所有三个因素下都易受影响，29个在两个因素下易受影响，22个在一个因素下易受影响。瓦哈卡州特有的十种啮齿类物种中有六种在两个或更多因素下易受影响。我们发现，分布范围狭窄且受限、适应能力低的物种预计将特别脆弱。
通过在气候暴露评估中纳入特定物种的特征信息，研究人员可以将其背景化，并增强对气候变化可能如何影响感兴趣区域内单个类群的理解。因此，这样的研究比单独的暴露分析提供了更相关的威胁评估信息，并作为考虑气候变化如何与一系列其他变量相互作用以影响其范围内本地物种的起点。
