Bankuru Sri Vibhaav, Kossol Samuel, Hou William, Mahmoudi Parsa, Rychtář Jan, Taylor Dewey
Department of Biomedical Engineering, Virginia Commonwealth University, Richmond, VA, United States of America.
Department of Kinesiology and Health Sciences, Virginia Commonwealth University, Richmond, VA, United States of America.
PeerJ. 2020 Jun 22;8:e9272. doi: 10.7717/peerj.9272. eCollection 2020.
Monkeypox (MPX) is a zoonotic disease similar to smallpox. Its fatality rate is about 11% and it is endemic to the Central and West African countries. In this paper, we analyze a compartmental model of MPX dynamics. Our goal is to see whether MPX can be controlled and eradicated by voluntary vaccinations. We show that there are three equilibria-disease free, fully endemic and previously neglected semi-endemic (with disease existing only among humans). The existence of semi-endemic equilibrium has severe implications should the MPX virus mutate to increased viral fitness in humans. We find that MPX is controllable and can be eradicated in a semi-endemic equilibrium by vaccination. However, in a fully endemic equilibrium, MPX cannot be eradicated by vaccination alone.
猴痘（MPX）是一种类似于天花的人畜共患疾病。其死亡率约为11%，在中非和西非国家呈地方性流行。在本文中，我们分析了一个猴痘动态的分区模型。我们的目标是了解猴痘是否可以通过自愿接种疫苗来控制和根除。我们表明存在三种平衡状态——无病平衡、完全地方性流行平衡以及之前被忽视的半地方性流行平衡（疾病仅在人类中存在）。如果猴痘病毒发生突变，使其在人类中的适应性增强，那么半地方性流行平衡的存在将产生严重影响。我们发现，在半地方性流行平衡状态下，猴痘是可控的，并且可以通过接种疫苗根除。然而，在完全地方性流行平衡状态下，仅靠接种疫苗无法根除猴痘。
