Cheng Emily, Gambhirrao Neeha, Patel Rohani, Zhowandai Aufia, Rychtář Jan, Taylor Dewey
Department of Biomedical Engineering, Virginia Commonwealth University, Richmond, VA 23284-3068, USA.
Department of Biology, Virginia Commonwealth University, Richmond, VA 23284-2012, USA.
J Theor Biol. 2020 Aug 21;499:110298. doi: 10.1016/j.jtbi.2020.110298. Epub 2020 May 1.
Poliomyelitis is a worldwide disease that has nearly been eradicated thanks to the Global Polio Eradication Initiative. Nevertheless, the disease is currently still endemic in three countries. In this paper, we incorporate the vaccination in a two age-class model of polio dynamics. Our main objective is to see whether mandatory vaccination policy is needed or if polio could be almost eradicated by a voluntary vaccination. We perform game theoretical analysis and compare the herd immunity vaccination levels with the Nash equilibrium vaccination levels. We show that the gap between two vaccination levels is too large. We conclude that the mandatory vaccination policy is therefore needed to achieve a complete eradication.
脊髓灰质炎是一种全球性疾病，多亏了全球根除脊髓灰质炎行动，这种疾病几乎已被根除。然而，目前该疾病在三个国家仍然流行。在本文中，我们将疫苗接种纳入脊髓灰质炎动态的两年龄组模型。我们的主要目标是了解是否需要强制疫苗接种政策，或者脊髓灰质炎是否可以通过自愿疫苗接种几乎根除。我们进行博弈论分析，并将群体免疫疫苗接种水平与纳什均衡疫苗接种水平进行比较。我们表明，两种疫苗接种水平之间的差距太大。我们得出结论，因此需要强制疫苗接种政策来实现彻底根除。
