Guangdong Provincial Institute of Public Health, Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou, People's Republic of China.
Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou, People's Republic of China.
Emerg Microbes Infect. 2020 Dec;9(1):1546-1553. doi: 10.1080/22221751.2020.1787799.
This study aimed to estimate the attack rates, and identify the risk factors of COVID-19 infection. Based on a retrospective cohort study, we investigated 11,580 contacts of COVID-19 cases in Guangdong Province from 10 January to 15 March 2020. All contacts were tested by RT-PCR to detect their infection of SARS-COV-2. Attack rates by characteristics were calculated. Logistic regression was used to estimate the risk factors of infection for COVID-19. A total of 515 of 11,580 contacts were identified to be infected with SARS-COV-2. Compared to young adults aged 20-29 years, the infected risk was higher in children (RR: 2.59, 95%CI: 1.79-3.76), and old people aged 60-69 years (RR: 5.29, 95%CI: 3.76-7.46). Females also had higher infected risk (RR: 1.66, 95%CI: 1.39-2.00). People having close relationship with index cases encountered higher infected risk (RR for spouse: 20.68, 95%CI: 14.28-29.95; RR for non-spouse family members: 9.55, 95%CI: 6.73-13.55; RR for close relatives: 5.90, 95%CI: 4.06-8.59). Moreover, contacts exposed to index case in symptomatic period (RR: 2.15, 95%CI: 1.67-2.79), with critically severe symptoms (RR: 1.61, 95%CI: 1.00-2.57), with symptoms of dizzy (RR: 1.58, 95%CI: 1.08-2.30), myalgia (RR: 1.49, 95%CI: 1.15-1.94), and chill (RR: 1.42, 95%CI: 1.05-1.92) had higher infected risks. Children, old people, females, and family members are susceptible of COVID-19 infection, while index cases in the incubation period had lower contagiousness. Our findings will be helpful for developing targeted prevention and control strategies to combat the worldwide pandemic.
本研究旨在估计 COVID-19 感染的发病率，并确定感染的危险因素。基于回顾性队列研究，我们调查了 2020 年 1 月 10 日至 3 月 15 日广东省 11580 名 COVID-19 病例的接触者。所有接触者均接受 RT-PCR 检测以检测其是否感染 SARS-COV-2。按特征计算发病率。使用逻辑回归估计 COVID-19 感染的危险因素。在 11580 名接触者中，共有 515 名被确定感染了 SARS-COV-2。与 20-29 岁的年轻人相比，儿童（RR：2.59，95%CI：1.79-3.76）和 60-69 岁的老年人（RR：5.29，95%CI：3.76-7.46）感染风险更高。女性的感染风险也更高（RR：1.66，95%CI：1.39-2.00）。与指数病例关系密切的人感染风险更高（配偶的 RR：20.68，95%CI：14.28-29.95；非配偶家庭成员的 RR：9.55，95%CI：6.73-13.55；近亲 RR：5.90，95%CI：4.06-8.59）。此外，与有症状（RR：2.15，95%CI：1.67-2.79）、症状严重（RR：1.61，95%CI：1.00-2.57）、头晕（RR：1.58，95%CI：1.08-2.30）、肌痛（RR：1.49，95%CI：1.15-1.94）和发冷（RR：1.42，95%CI：1.05-1.92）的指数病例接触的接触者感染风险更高。儿童、老年人、女性和家庭成员易感染 COVID-19，而潜伏期的指数病例传染性较低。我们的研究结果将有助于制定有针对性的预防和控制策略，以应对全球大流行。
