基于 ARIMA 模型的 COVID-19 研究——以中国湖北省为例，观察意大利的疫情。
Research on COVID-19 based on ARIMA model-Taking Hubei, China as an example to see the epidemic in Italy.
机构信息
School of Biomedical Engineering, Capital Medical University, Beijing Key Laboratory of Fundamental Research on Biomechanics in Clinical Application, Beijing 100069, China.
School of Basic Medical Sciences, Capital Medical University, Beijing 100069, China.
出版信息
J Infect Public Health. 2020 Oct;13(10):1415-1418. doi: 10.1016/j.jiph.2020.06.019. Epub 2020 Jun 20.
COVID-19 has spread throughout the world; various forecast models have been used to predict the development of the pandemic. The number of new cases from the outbreak to zero has gone through a complete cycle in Hubei, China, on lockdown over coronavirus. So, we created the time series ARIMA models for new cases and new deaths daily during this period. Moreover, these models have been used in Italy, which has the same population conditions and on lockdown as Hubei, in order to predict the epidemic in Italy in the next ten days and provide a theoretical basis for the development of pandemics in some countries in the future.
新冠病毒（COVID-19）已经在全球范围内传播；为了预测疫情的发展，已经使用了各种预测模型。在中国湖北省因冠状病毒而封锁期间，从疫情爆发到新增病例清零，经历了一个完整的周期。因此，我们为这一时期的每日新增病例和新增死亡病例创建了时间序列 ARIMA 模型。此外，这些模型还被用于意大利，意大利与中国湖北的人口条件相同，且处于封锁状态，目的是预测未来十天意大利的疫情，并为未来一些国家的大流行发展提供理论依据。
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