Cortiñas Abrahantes José, Gogin Andrey, Richardson Jane, Gervelmeyer Andrea
EFSA J. 2017 Mar 23;15(3):e04732. doi: 10.2903/j.efsa.2017.4732. eCollection 2017 Mar.
African swine fever virus (ASFV) has been notified in the Baltic countries and the eastern part of Poland from the beginning of 2014 up to now. In collaboration with the ASF-affected Member States (MS), EFSA is updating the epidemiological analysis of ASF in the European Union which was carried out in 2015. For this purpose, the latest epidemiological and laboratory data were analysed in order to identify the spatial-temporal pattern of the epidemic and a risk factors facilitating its spread. Currently, the ASF outbreaks in wild boar in the Baltic countries and Poland can be defined as a small-scale epidemic with a slow average spatial spread in wild boar subpopulations (approximately from 1 in Lithuania and Poland to 2 km/month in Estonia and Latvia). The number of positive samples in hunted wild boar peaks in winter which can be explained by human activity patterns (significant hunting activity over winter). The number of positive samples in wild boar found dead peaks in summer. This could be related to the epidemiology of the disease and/or the biology of wild boar; however, this needs further investigation. Virus prevalence in hunted wild boar is very low (0.04-3%), without any apparent trend over time. Apparent virus prevalence at country level in wild boar found dead in affected countries ranges from 60% to 86%, with the exception of Poland, where values between 0.5% and 1.42%, were observed. Since the beginning of the epidemic, the apparent antibody prevalence in hunted wild boar has always been lower than the apparent virus prevalence, indicating an unchanged epidemiological/immunological situation. The risk factor analysis shows an association between the number of settlements, human and domestic pigs population size or wild boar population density and the presence of ASF in wild boar for Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania.
自2014年初至今，非洲猪瘟病毒（ASFV）已在波罗的海国家和波兰东部被通报。欧洲食品安全局（EFSA）正与受非洲猪瘟影响的成员国合作，更新2015年对欧盟非洲猪瘟进行的流行病学分析。为此，对最新的流行病学和实验室数据进行了分析，以确定疫情的时空模式以及促进其传播的风险因素。目前，波罗的海国家和波兰野猪身上的非洲猪瘟疫情可被定义为小规模疫情，在野猪亚种群中的平均空间传播速度较慢（立陶宛和波兰约为每月1公里，爱沙尼亚和拉脱维亚约为每月2公里）。冬季，被猎杀野猪的阳性样本数量达到峰值，这可以通过人类活动模式来解释（冬季有大量狩猎活动）。夏季，死亡野猪的阳性样本数量达到峰值。这可能与疾病的流行病学和/或野猪的生物学特性有关；然而，这需要进一步调查。被猎杀野猪的病毒流行率非常低（0.04%-3%），且没有任何明显的时间趋势。在受影响国家，死亡野猪在国家层面的表观病毒流行率在60%至86%之间，但波兰除外，其流行率在0.5%至1.42%之间。自疫情开始以来，被猎杀野猪的表观抗体流行率一直低于表观病毒流行率，这表明流行病学/免疫学情况没有变化。风险因素分析表明，对于爱沙尼亚、拉脱维亚和立陶宛来说，定居点数量、人类和家猪种群规模或野猪种群密度与野猪身上非洲猪瘟的存在之间存在关联。
