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使用SAS软件对具有甲状腺慢性影响的农药进行累积膳食暴露评估。

Cumulative dietary exposure assessment of pesticides that have chronic effects on the thyroid using SAS software.

作者信息

Dujardin Bruno, Bocca Valentina

出版信息

EFSA J. 2019 Sep 17;17(9):e05763. doi: 10.2903/j.efsa.2019.5763. eCollection 2019 Sep.

Abstract

Retrospective dietary exposure assessments were conducted for two groups of pesticides that have chronic effects on the thyroid: hypertrophy, hyperplasia and neoplasia of C-cells, and hypothyroidism. The pesticides considered in this assessment were identified and characterised in the scientific report on the establishment of cumulative assessment groups of pesticides for their effects on the thyroid. The exposure assessments used monitoring data collected by Member States under their official pesticide monitoring programmes in 2014, 2015 and 2016, and individual food consumption data from 10 populations of consumers from different countries and from different age groups. Exposure estimates were obtained for each group of pesticides by means of a 2-dimensional probabilistic model, which was implemented in SAS software. Results were validated against exposure estimates obtained by the Dutch National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM) using the Monte Carlo Risk Assessment (MCRA) software. Both tools produced nearly identical results and minor differences were mainly attributed to the random effect of probabilistic modelling. The exposure estimates obtained in this report are used in the final scientific report on the cumulative dietary risk characterisation of pesticides that have chronic effects on the thyroid. The latter combines the hazard assessment and exposure assessment into a consolidated risk characterisation including all uncertainties.

摘要

对两组对甲状腺有慢性影响的农药进行了回顾性膳食暴露评估

C细胞肥大、增生和肿瘤形成,以及甲状腺功能减退。本次评估中考虑的农药在关于建立农药累积评估组对甲状腺影响的科学报告中得到了识别和表征。暴露评估使用了成员国在2014年、2015年和2016年官方农药监测计划下收集的监测数据,以及来自不同国家和不同年龄组的10组消费者的个人食品消费数据。通过在SAS软件中实施的二维概率模型,获得了每组农药的暴露估计值。结果与荷兰国家公共卫生和环境研究所(RIVM)使用蒙特卡罗风险评估(MCRA)软件获得的暴露估计值进行了验证。两种工具产生的结果几乎相同,微小差异主要归因于概率建模的随机效应。本报告中获得的暴露估计值用于关于对甲状腺有慢性影响的农药累积膳食风险特征的最终科学报告。后者将危害评估和暴露评估结合成一个包括所有不确定性的综合风险特征。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/036f/7009042/a6be98e05b29/EFS2-17-e05763-g001.jpg

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