Department of Public and Global Health, MilMedBiol Competence Centre, Institute for Epidemiology, Biostatistics and Prevention, University of Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland.
Centre of Competence for Military and Disaster Medicine, Federal Department of Defence, Civil Protection and Sport DDPS, Swiss Armed Forces, Switzerland.
Travel Med Infect Dis. 2020 Jul-Aug;36:101815. doi: 10.1016/j.tmaid.2020.101815. Epub 2020 Jul 3.
Malaria is one of the most life-threatening vector-borne diseases globally. Recent autochthonous cases registered in several European countries have raised awareness regarding the threat of malaria reintroduction to Europe. An increasing number of imported malaria cases today occur due to international travel and migrant flows from malaria-endemic countries. The cumulative factors of the presence of competent vectors, favourable climatic conditions and evidence of increasing temperatures might lead to the re-emergence of malaria in countries where the infection was previously eliminated.
We performed a systematic literature review following PRISMA guidelines. We searched for original articles focusing on rising temperature and the receptivity to malaria transmission in Europe. We evaluated the quality of the selected studies using a standardised tool.
The search resulted in 1'999 articles of possible relevance and after screening we included 10 original research papers in the quantitative analysis for the systematic review. With further increasing temperatures studies predicted a northward spread of the occurrence of Anopheles mosquitoes and an extension of seasonality, enabling malaria transmission for annual periods up to 6 months in the years 2051-2080. Highest vector stability and receptivity were predicted in Southern and South-Eastern European areas. Anopheles atroparvus, the main potential malaria vector in Europe, might play an important role under changing conditions favouring malaria transmission.
The receptivity of Europe for malaria transmission will increase as a result of rising temperature unless socioeconomic factors remain favourable and appropriate public health measures are implemented. Our systematic review serves as an evidence base for future preventive measures.
疟疾是全球最具致命性的虫媒传染病之一。最近在几个欧洲国家发现的本地疟疾病例引起了人们对疟疾再次传入欧洲的威胁的关注。由于国际旅行和来自疟疾流行国家的移民流动，今天越来越多的输入性疟疾病例发生。存在有能力传播的媒介、有利的气候条件以及温度升高的证据等累积因素，可能导致疟疾在以前已被消灭的国家重新出现。
我们按照 PRISMA 指南进行了系统文献综述。我们搜索了专注于温度升高和欧洲疟疾传播易感性的原始文章。我们使用标准化工具评估了所选研究的质量。
搜索结果显示有 1999 篇可能相关的文章，经过筛选，我们在定量分析中纳入了 10 篇原始研究论文进行系统综述。随着温度的进一步升高，研究预测安蚊的发生范围将向北扩展，季节性延长，到 2051-2080 年，每年的疟疾传播时间将长达 6 个月。南欧和东南欧地区的媒介稳定性和易感性预测最高。欧洲主要潜在疟疾媒介黑疟蚊可能在有利于疟疾传播的变化条件下发挥重要作用。
除非社会经济因素仍然有利且实施了适当的公共卫生措施，否则欧洲对疟疾传播的易感性将随着温度的升高而增加。我们的系统综述为未来的预防措施提供了证据基础。
