ESME - Research Group Epidemiological and Statistical Methods, Helmholtz Centre for Infection Research, Braunschweig, Germany; Insitute of Medical Biostatistics, Epidemiology and Informatics, University Medical Center Mainz, Germany; Department of Ophthalmology, University of Bonn, Germany.
Institute for Epidemiology and Social Medicine, University of Münster, Germany.
Travel Med Infect Dis. 2020 Jul-Aug;36:101564. doi: 10.1016/j.tmaid.2020.101564. Epub 2020 Jan 28.
Aim of our study was to identify conditions under which malaria transmission caused by imported infectious mosquitoes or travellers could occur at large central European airports, and if such transmission could be sustained by indigenous mosquitoes.
We developed a deterministic and a stochastic compartmental Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered-Susceptible (humans)/Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious (mosquitoes) model with two mosquito (imported Anopheles gambiae, indigenous A. plumbeus) and three human (travellers, airport personnel exposed/not exposed to imported A. gambiae) populations. We assessed various scenarios to identify combinations of model parameters leading to ongoing malaria transmission at the airport.
The number of infected airport personnel was low (five infected employees/six months) under assumptions reflecting possible future climatic conditions, current passenger mobility and no desinsection of airports/aircraft. Almost all infections among airport personnel were directly due to bites by imported A. gambiae. Indigenous mosquitoes would need to have comparable transmission parameters to A. gambiae to sustain disease transmission. Incoming infectious passengers play only a minor role in malaria transmission. Use of aircraft/airport desinsection led to no transmission events in the model.
Our study shows that sustainable air travel-induced malaria transmission in central Europe is unlikely under current conditions or conditions which might become realistic in the next century.
我们研究的目的是确定在大型中欧机场，由输入性传染性蚊子或旅行者引起的疟疾传播的条件，以及这种传播是否可以由本地蚊子维持。
我们开发了一个确定性和随机的 compartments 易感-暴露-感染-恢复-易感（人类）/易感-暴露-感染（蚊子）模型，其中有两种蚊子（输入性冈比亚按蚊，本地 A. plumbeus）和三种人类（旅行者、机场工作人员暴露/未暴露于输入性 A. gambiae）。我们评估了各种情况，以确定导致机场持续疟疾传播的模型参数组合。
在反映未来可能的气候条件、当前的旅客流动性和不进行机场/飞机除虫的假设下，感染机场工作人员的人数很少（五名受感染的员工/六个月）。机场工作人员中的几乎所有感染都是直接由输入性冈比亚按蚊叮咬引起的。本地蚊子需要具有与冈比亚按蚊相当的传播参数才能维持疾病传播。入境的传染性旅客在疟疾传播中只起次要作用。飞机/机场除虫的使用在模型中没有导致传播事件。
我们的研究表明，在当前条件下或下个世纪可能变得现实的条件下，可持续的航空旅行引起的欧洲中部疟疾传播不太可能发生。
