Department of Epidemiology and Population Health, Institute of Infection and Global Health, University of Liverpool, Liverpool Science Park-Innovation Centre 2, 131 Mount Pleasant, Liverpool L3 5TF, UK.
National Institute of Health Research Health Protection Research Unit in Emerging and Zoonotic Infections, University of Liverpool, Liverpool, UK.
Proc Biol Sci. 2020 Jul 8;287(1930):20200119. doi: 10.1098/rspb.2020.0119.
Mosquito-borne Zika virus (ZIKV) transmission has almost exclusively been detected in the tropics despite the distributions of its primary vectors extending farther into temperate regions. Therefore, it is unknown whether ZIKV's range has reached a temperature-dependent limit, or if it can spread into temperate climates. Using field-collected mosquitoes for biological relevance, we found that two common temperate mosquito species, and , were competent for ZIKV. We orally exposed mosquitoes to ZIKV and held them at between 17 and 31°C, estimated the time required for mosquitoes to become infectious, and applied these data to a ZIKV spatial risk model. We identified a minimum temperature threshold for the transmission of ZIKV by mosquitoes between 17 and 19°C. Using these data, we generated standardized basic reproduction number -based risk maps and we derived estimates for the length of the transmission season for recent and future climate conditions. Our standardized -based risk maps show potential risk of ZIKV transmission beyond the current observed range in southern USA, southern China and southern European countries. Transmission risk is simulated to increase over southern and Eastern Europe, northern USA and temperate regions of Asia (northern China, southern Japan) in future climate scenarios.
蚊媒寨卡病毒（ZIKV）的传播几乎只在热带地区被检测到，尽管其主要传播媒介的分布范围已经延伸到温带地区。因此，目前还不清楚 ZIKV 的传播范围是否已经达到了温度依赖性的限制，或者它是否可以传播到温带气候地区。我们使用野外采集的蚊子进行了具有生物学相关性的研究，发现两种常见的温带蚊子 和 都能够感染寨卡病毒。我们通过口服将寨卡病毒暴露给蚊子，并将其置于 17 到 31°C 之间，估计蚊子感染所需的时间，并将这些数据应用于寨卡病毒的空间风险模型中。我们确定了蚊子传播寨卡病毒的最低温度阈值在 17 到 19°C 之间。利用这些数据，我们生成了基于标准化基本繁殖数的风险地图，并得出了在近期和未来气候条件下传播季节长度的估计值。我们基于标准化基本繁殖数的风险地图显示，寨卡病毒的传播有潜在风险会超出目前在美国南部、中国南部和欧洲南部国家观察到的范围。在未来的气候情景中，预计在欧洲南部和东部、美国北部以及亚洲温带地区（中国北部、日本南部）的传播风险将会增加。
