Liang Yuanhao, Dai Xingzhu
Clinical Experimental Center, Jiangmen Engineering Technology Research Center of Clinical Biobank and Translational Research, Jiangmen Central Hospital, Jiangmen, China.
Department of Stomatology, Guangdong Provincial People's Hospital (Guangdong Academy of Medical Sciences), Southern Medical University, Guangzhou, China.
Front Microbiol. 2024 Aug 14;15:1458166. doi: 10.3389/fmicb.2024.1458166. eCollection 2024.
Flavivirus pose a continued threat to global health, yet their worldwide burden and trends remain poorly quantified. We aimed to evaluate the global, regional, and national incidence of three common flavivirus infections (Dengue, yellow fever, and Zika) from 2011 to 2021.
Data on the number and rate of incidence for the three common flavivirus infection in 204 countries and territories were retrieved from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021. The estimated annual percent change (EAPC) was calculated to quantify the temporal trend during 2011-2016, 2016-2019, and 2019-2021, respectively.
In 2021, an estimated 59,220,428 individuals were infected globally, comprising 58,964,185 cases of dengue, 86,509 cases of yellow fever, and 169,734 cases of Zika virus infection. The age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) of the three common flavivirus infections increased by an annual average of 5.08% (95% CI 4.12 to 6.05) globally from 2011 to 2016, whereas decreased by an annual average of -8.37% (95% CI -12.46 to -4.08) per year between 2016 to 2019. The ASIR remained stable during 2019-2021, with an average change of 0.69% (95% CI -0.96 to 2.37) per year globally for the three common flavivirus infections. Regionally, the burden of the three common flavivirus infections was primarily concentrated in those regions with middle income, such as South Asia, Southeast Asia, and Tropical Latin America. Additionally, at the country level, there was an inverted "U" relationship between the SDI level and the ASI. Notably, an increase in the average age of infected cases has been observed worldwide, particularly in higher-income regions.
Flavivirus infections are an expanding public health concern worldwide, with considerable regional and demographic variation in the incidence. Policymakers and healthcare providers must stay vigilant regarding the impact of COVID-19 and other environmental factors on the risk of flavivirus infection and be prepared for potential future outbreaks.
黄病毒对全球健康构成持续威胁，但其全球负担和趋势仍未得到充分量化。我们旨在评估2011年至2021年三种常见黄病毒感染（登革热、黄热病和寨卡病毒）的全球、区域和国家发病率。
从《2021年全球疾病、伤害及风险因素负担研究》（GBD 2021）中检索了204个国家和地区三种常见黄病毒感染的发病数量和发病率数据。分别计算了2011 - 2016年、2016 - 2019年和2019 - 2021年的估计年变化百分比（EAPC），以量化时间趋势。
2021年，全球估计有59,220,428人感染，其中包括58,964,185例登革热、86,509例黄热病和169,734例寨卡病毒感染。2011年至2016年，全球三种常见黄病毒感染的年龄标准化发病率（ASIR）平均每年增长5.08%（95%置信区间4.12至6.05），而2016年至2019年每年平均下降-8.37%（95%置信区间-12.46至-4.08）。2019年至2021年期间，ASIR保持稳定，全球三种常见黄病毒感染的平均年变化率为0.69%（95%置信区间-0.96至2.37）。在区域层面，三种常见黄病毒感染的负担主要集中在中等收入地区，如南亚、东南亚和热带拉丁美洲。此外，在国家层面，社会人口指数（SDI）水平与年龄标准化发病率（ASI）之间存在倒“U”关系。值得注意的是，全球范围内观察到感染病例的平均年龄有所增加，特别是在高收入地区。
黄病毒感染是全球范围内日益严重的公共卫生问题，发病率在区域和人口结构上存在显著差异。政策制定者和医疗服务提供者必须对新冠疫情和其他环境因素对黄病毒感染风险的影响保持警惕，并为未来可能的疫情爆发做好准备。
